Politics predictions & odds

·
Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

99%

Péter Magyar

$88M Vol.

$15M today

$6M Liq.

2,040

Military action against Iran ends by...?

Military action against Iran ends by...?

100%

April 17

$15M Vol.

$13M today

$7M Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Peru Presidential Election Winner

55%

Keiko Fujimori

$21M Vol.

$6M today

$3M Liq.

2,073

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

28%

Gavin Newsom

$1B Vol.

$5M today

$48M Liq.

653

Ends in over 2 years

Elon Musk # tweets April 7 - April 14, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets April 7 - April 14, 2026?

52%

300-319

$10M Vol.

$4M today

$1M Liq.

1

Ends in about 22 hours

Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

98%

No change

$79M Vol.

$3M today

$3M Liq.

7

Ends in 15 days

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%

JD Vance

$521M Vol.

$3M today

$30M Liq.

846

Ends in over 2 years

Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place

Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place

98%

Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)

$11M Vol.

$3M today

$42.8K Liq.

16

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

39%

J.D. Vance

$550M Vol.

$3M today

$31M Liq.

346

Ends in over 2 years

Elon Musk # tweets April 11 - April 13, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets April 11 - April 13, 2026?

100%

115-139

$4M Vol.

$2M today

$557K Liq.

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

94%

December 31

$39M Vol.

$2M today

$809K Liq.

1,973

Elon Musk # tweets April 10 - April 17, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets April 10 - April 17, 2026?

22%

300-319

$5M Vol.

$1M today

$925K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026?

Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026?

14%

1240-1279

$7M Vol.

$1M today

$510K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

2%

April 10

$9M Vol.

$1M today

$137K Liq.

1

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

42%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$1M today

$209K Liq.

74

Ends in about 2 months

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

74%

June 30

$22M Vol.

$1M today

$311K Liq.

447

Ends in 3 months

Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

24%

Édouard Philippe

$38M Vol.

$980K today

$4M Liq.

393

Ends in about 1 year

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

20%

June 30

$23M Vol.

$938K today

$591K Liq.

334

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

94%

Kevin Warsh

$28M Vol.

$918K today

$1M Liq.

79

Ends in 7 months

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

90%

Chong Won-oh

$20M Vol.

$837K today

$2M Liq.

27

Ends in about 2 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Politics.

Polymarket currently hosts 1423 active markets for Politics that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Next Prime Minister of Hungary”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $2.5B in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 28% chance to Gavin Newsom. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Politics predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.