Direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 11-12, 2026, with Vice President JD Vance citing Iran's rejection of curbs on uranium enrichment, missile programs, nuclear sites, and proxy funding as key impasses. This setback follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 amid the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan, where Iran proposed a 10-point plan demanding full de-escalation and Strait of Hormuz reopening. President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports in response, risking ceasefire breakdown. No further sessions are scheduled, though mediators urge resumption; entrenched positions on nuclear and military limits dim near-term prospects for a permanent peace deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$2,696,914 Vol.
Apr 22, 2026
April 22
14%
April 30
16%
May 31
30%
June 30
39%
$2,696,914 Vol.
April 22
$1,868,681 Vol.
14%
April 30
$440,610 Vol.
16%
May 31
$361,367 Vol.
30%
June 30
$27,716 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 11-12, 2026, with Vice President JD Vance citing Iran's rejection of curbs on uranium enrichment, missile programs, nuclear sites, and proxy funding as key impasses. This setback follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 amid the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan, where Iran proposed a 10-point plan demanding full de-escalation and Strait of Hormuz reopening. President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports in response, risking ceasefire breakdown. No further sessions are scheduled, though mediators urge resumption; entrenched positions on nuclear and military limits dim near-term prospects for a permanent peace deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volume
$2,696,914End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 11-12, 2026, with Vice President JD Vance citing Iran's rejection of curbs on uranium enrichment, missile programs, nuclear sites, and proxy funding as key impasses. This setback follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 amid the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan, where Iran proposed a 10-point plan demanding full de-escalation and Strait of Hormuz reopening. President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports in response, risking ceasefire breakdown. No further sessions are scheduled, though mediators urge resumption; entrenched positions on nuclear and military limits dim near-term prospects for a permanent peace deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,696,914End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours on April 11-12, 2026, with Vice President JD Vance citing Iran's rejection of curbs on uranium enrichment, missile programs, nuclear sites, and proxy funding as key impasses. This setback follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 amid the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan, where Iran proposed a 10-point plan demanding full de-escalation and Strait of Hormuz reopening. President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports in response, risking ceasefire breakdown. No further sessions are scheduled, though mediators urge resumption; entrenched positions on nuclear and military limits dim near-term prospects for a permanent peace deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions