With nearly 99% of votes counted in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, the National Election Commission reports Péter Magyar's Tisza Party securing about 53% of the popular vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 39-40%, implying a 13-14% margin that trader consensus prices at 99.2% probability for Tisza exceeding 9%. Record 78% turnout fueled Tisza's supermajority projection of 138 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly, prompting Viktor Orbán's concession after 16 years in power. This commanding position stems from Tisza's sweeps in Budapest and Fidesz rural strongholds, reflecting opposition momentum from recent polls. Final certification could theoretically narrow the gap via recounts, but disputes appear minimal absent late legal challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTisza 9%+ 99.2%
Tisza 6-9% <1%
Tisza 3-6% <1%
Tisza 0-3% <1%
$3,266,655 Vol.
$3,266,655 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
99%
Tisza 6-9%
<1%
Tisza 3-6%
<1%
Tisza 0-3%
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
<1%
Other
<1%
Tisza 9%+ 99.2%
Tisza 6-9% <1%
Tisza 3-6% <1%
Tisza 0-3% <1%
$3,266,655 Vol.
$3,266,655 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
$722,208 Vol.
99%
Tisza 6-9%
$176,871 Vol.
<1%
Tisza 3-6%
$164,353 Vol.
<1%
Tisza 0-3%
$167,374 Vol.
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
$231,555 Vol.
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
$248,546 Vol.
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
$661,739 Vol.
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
$779,747 Vol.
<1%
Other
$114,339 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.With nearly 99% of votes counted in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, the National Election Commission reports Péter Magyar's Tisza Party securing about 53% of the popular vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 39-40%, implying a 13-14% margin that trader consensus prices at 99.2% probability for Tisza exceeding 9%. Record 78% turnout fueled Tisza's supermajority projection of 138 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly, prompting Viktor Orbán's concession after 16 years in power. This commanding position stems from Tisza's sweeps in Budapest and Fidesz rural strongholds, reflecting opposition momentum from recent polls. Final certification could theoretically narrow the gap via recounts, but disputes appear minimal absent late legal challenges.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$3,266,655End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.With nearly 99% of votes counted in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, the National Election Commission reports Péter Magyar's Tisza Party securing about 53% of the popular vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 39-40%, implying a 13-14% margin that trader consensus prices at 99.2% probability for Tisza exceeding 9%. Record 78% turnout fueled Tisza's supermajority projection of 138 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly, prompting Viktor Orbán's concession after 16 years in power. This commanding position stems from Tisza's sweeps in Budapest and Fidesz rural strongholds, reflecting opposition momentum from recent polls. Final certification could theoretically narrow the gap via recounts, but disputes appear minimal absent late legal challenges.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$3,266,655End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With nearly 99% of votes counted in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, the National Election Commission reports Péter Magyar's Tisza Party securing about 53% of the popular vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 39-40%, implying a 13-14% margin that trader consensus prices at 99.2% probability for Tisza exceeding 9%. Record 78% turnout fueled Tisza's supermajority projection of 138 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly, prompting Viktor Orbán's concession after 16 years in power. This commanding position stems from Tisza's sweeps in Budapest and Fidesz rural strongholds, reflecting opposition momentum from recent polls. Final certification could theoretically narrow the gap via recounts, but disputes appear minimal absent late legal challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions