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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 40.0%

Marco Rubio 21.3%

Tucker Carlson 4.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$548,499,981 Vol.

J.D. Vance 40.0%

Marco Rubio 21.3%

Tucker Carlson 4.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$548,499,981 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$11,937,535 Vol.

40%

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Marco Rubio

$7,776,325 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,395,174 Vol.

4%

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Ron DeSantis

$12,378,308 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$7,076,509 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$3,224,008 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,511,310 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,772,235 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$16,773,830 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$11,240,354 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$13,383,546 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$6,064,927 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$26,586,598 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,343,280 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,858,216 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,906,259 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,812,006 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,823,463 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,690,720 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$12,136,973 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,811,683 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$17,119,047 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$25,196,253 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$29,002,368 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$16,499,657 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$16,079,210 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$24,770,667 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$3,188,497 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$35,912,786 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,836,209 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$13,887,850 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$30,660,319 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,997,713 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$3,367,576 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$37,482,290 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket places Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-profile role as HHS Secretary and bold reforms like overhauling CDC vaccine advisory committees, which boosted his odds to a March peak amid the MAHA movement's momentum. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 40.1%, bolstered by his 53% win in the late-March CPAC straw poll but tempered by donor hesitancy revealed in President Trump's Mar-a-Lago polling favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 21.2%, gaining from recent donor signals preferring him over Vance. This tight race among Trump administration insiders reflects post-incumbency uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, scandals, or a Trump endorsement poised to create separation ahead of primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$548,499,981
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket places Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-profile role as HHS Secretary and bold reforms like overhauling CDC vaccine advisory committees, which boosted his odds to a March peak amid the MAHA movement's momentum. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 40.1%, bolstered by his 53% win in the late-March CPAC straw poll but tempered by donor hesitancy revealed in President Trump's Mar-a-Lago polling favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 21.2%, gaining from recent donor signals preferring him over Vance. This tight race among Trump administration insiders reflects post-incumbency uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, scandals, or a Trump endorsement poised to create separation ahead of primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$548,499,981
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 40%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $548.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.