Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 40.3%

Marco Rubio 21.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$548,079,813 Vol.

J.D. Vance 40.3%

Marco Rubio 21.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$548,079,813 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$11,929,398 Vol.

40%

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Marco Rubio

$7,678,727 Vol.

22%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,372,521 Vol.

4%

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Ron DeSantis

$12,374,837 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$7,073,984 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$3,223,884 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,510,479 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,772,170 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$16,767,506 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$11,238,847 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$13,364,381 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$6,061,529 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$26,577,310 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,858,111 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,339,875 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,810,185 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,904,495 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,809,987 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,682,969 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$12,130,135 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,800,630 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$17,108,404 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$25,188,130 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,987,686 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$16,487,168 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$24,755,570 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$16,073,587 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$3,170,236 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$35,901,563 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,824,086 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$13,873,453 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$30,648,844 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,983,091 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$3,342,750 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$37,460,295 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket places Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, just ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 40.3%, with Marco Rubio at 21.9%, reflecting post-Trump administration jockeying amid term limits barring a third run. RFK Jr.'s lead stems from his effective tenure as HHS Secretary, highlighted by a recent POLITICO poll showing strong public support for his aggressive regulatory actions against food and pharmaceutical industries, boosting his MAGA outsider appeal. Vance holds firm as heir apparent via incumbency and CPAC straw poll wins, but faces headwinds from family considerations ahead of his fourth child's birth, uneven early polling, and donor preferences tilting toward Rubio amid Iran policy tensions. The tight race persists due to no dominant successor, with 2026 midterms poised to clarify battleground turnout and factional strength.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$548,079,813
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket places Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, just ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 40.3%, with Marco Rubio at 21.9%, reflecting post-Trump administration jockeying amid term limits barring a third run. RFK Jr.'s lead stems from his effective tenure as HHS Secretary, highlighted by a recent POLITICO poll showing strong public support for his aggressive regulatory actions against food and pharmaceutical industries, boosting his MAGA outsider appeal. Vance holds firm as heir apparent via incumbency and CPAC straw poll wins, but faces headwinds from family considerations ahead of his fourth child's birth, uneven early polling, and donor preferences tilting toward Rubio amid Iran policy tensions. The tight race persists due to no dominant successor, with 2026 midterms poised to clarify battleground turnout and factional strength.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$548,079,813
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 40%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $548.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.