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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.9%

Gavin Newsom 16.5%

Marco Rubio 9.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.3%

Polymarket

$519,547,623 Vol.

JD Vance 18.9%

Gavin Newsom 16.5%

Marco Rubio 9.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.3%

Polymarket

$519,547,623 Vol.

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JD Vance

$10,132,239 Vol.

19%

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Gavin Newsom

$13,885,314 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$6,071,656 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,780,213 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,441,181 Vol.

4%

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Kamala Harris

$6,970,600 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,871,583 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,782,949 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,935,901 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,706,105 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,843,672 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$6,154,071 Vol.

1%

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Andy Beshear

$17,432,383 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,831,898 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,771,711 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$8,560,286 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,794,821 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$4,353,062 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,674,087 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,619,236 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,869,078 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,554,972 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,616,969 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$7,098,549 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$29,609,595 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$9,218,747 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$22,072,298 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$17,594,503 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$6,608,296 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$39,516,556 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$6,492,034 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$28,156,088 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$4,409,820 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$31,011,113 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,743,069 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$46,367,403 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim Polymarket lead at 19% implied probability as the 2028 presidential frontrunner, buoyed by his position as heir apparent to President Trump's MAGA base and strong showings in recent GOP primary hypotheticals like the February New Hampshire survey, while California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17% amid Democrats' search for a post-Harris leader following her 2024 defeat. A late-March UMass Lowell poll depicted a razor-thin Vance 33%-Newsom 30% head-to-head matchup, underscoring the wide-open field with no primaries underway and trader bets fluctuating on Trump administration performance. Midterm outcomes in 2026, Trump's explicit endorsement, fundraising surges, or scandals could widen gaps among contenders like Marco Rubio, whose 10% reflects Senate visibility but lacks separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$519,547,623
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim Polymarket lead at 19% implied probability as the 2028 presidential frontrunner, buoyed by his position as heir apparent to President Trump's MAGA base and strong showings in recent GOP primary hypotheticals like the February New Hampshire survey, while California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17% amid Democrats' search for a post-Harris leader following her 2024 defeat. A late-March UMass Lowell poll depicted a razor-thin Vance 33%-Newsom 30% head-to-head matchup, underscoring the wide-open field with no primaries underway and trader bets fluctuating on Trump administration performance. Midterm outcomes in 2026, Trump's explicit endorsement, fundraising surges, or scandals could widen gaps among contenders like Marco Rubio, whose 10% reflects Senate visibility but lacks separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$519,547,623
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 19%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $519.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.