Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 99% of votes counted, show Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party capturing 53% of the party list vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 38%, yielding a 15-point margin that aligns closely with trader consensus on the 12-15% bin. Record turnout of 79.5%—the highest in post-communist history—fueled Tisza's supermajority of 138 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly, prompting Viktor Orbán's concession and signaling voter backlash against 16 years of Fidesz rule amid economic woes and EU tensions. Pre-election polls diverged sharply by pollster affiliation, but actual returns validated independent surveys. While final certification from remaining precincts or overseas ballots could trim the gap slightly, the decisive lead leaves scant room for challenges like recounts or disputes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTisza 12-15% 95.3%
Tisza 15-18% 3.3%
Tisza 9-12% <1%
Tisza 18%+ <1%
$468,467 Vol.
$468,467 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 18%+
<1%
Tisza 15-18%
3%
Tisza 12-15%
95%
Tisza 9-12%
<1%
Tisza <9%
<1%
Other
<1%
Tisza 12-15% 95.3%
Tisza 15-18% 3.3%
Tisza 9-12% <1%
Tisza 18%+ <1%
$468,467 Vol.
$468,467 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 18%+
$112,923 Vol.
<1%
Tisza 15-18%
$91,881 Vol.
3%
Tisza 12-15%
$143,106 Vol.
95%
Tisza 9-12%
$54,988 Vol.
<1%
Tisza <9%
$39,047 Vol.
<1%
Other
$26,521 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 99% of votes counted, show Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party capturing 53% of the party list vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 38%, yielding a 15-point margin that aligns closely with trader consensus on the 12-15% bin. Record turnout of 79.5%—the highest in post-communist history—fueled Tisza's supermajority of 138 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly, prompting Viktor Orbán's concession and signaling voter backlash against 16 years of Fidesz rule amid economic woes and EU tensions. Pre-election polls diverged sharply by pollster affiliation, but actual returns validated independent surveys. While final certification from remaining precincts or overseas ballots could trim the gap slightly, the decisive lead leaves scant room for challenges like recounts or disputes.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$468,467End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 99% of votes counted, show Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party capturing 53% of the party list vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 38%, yielding a 15-point margin that aligns closely with trader consensus on the 12-15% bin. Record turnout of 79.5%—the highest in post-communist history—fueled Tisza's supermajority of 138 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly, prompting Viktor Orbán's concession and signaling voter backlash against 16 years of Fidesz rule amid economic woes and EU tensions. Pre-election polls diverged sharply by pollster affiliation, but actual returns validated independent surveys. While final certification from remaining precincts or overseas ballots could trim the gap slightly, the decisive lead leaves scant room for challenges like recounts or disputes.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volume
$468,467End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Provisional results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 99% of votes counted, show Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party capturing 53% of the party list vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 38%, yielding a 15-point margin that aligns closely with trader consensus on the 12-15% bin. Record turnout of 79.5%—the highest in post-communist history—fueled Tisza's supermajority of 138 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly, prompting Viktor Orbán's concession and signaling voter backlash against 16 years of Fidesz rule amid economic woes and EU tensions. Pre-election polls diverged sharply by pollster affiliation, but actual returns validated independent surveys. While final certification from remaining precincts or overseas ballots could trim the gap slightly, the decisive lead leaves scant room for challenges like recounts or disputes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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