Direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan—the first in over a decade—concluded without agreement after 21 hours on April 12, led by Vice President JD Vance amid a fragile two-week ceasefire. Sticking points included Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional ceasefires involving proxies. Iranian officials cited US intransigence and lack of trust, prompting President Trump to announce a US naval blockade of Iranian ports starting April 14. With escalation looming and no new negotiations scheduled, trader consensus reflects diminished near-term prospects for further diplomacy, though backchannel communications via mediators like Pakistan could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
$9,131,726 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
April 10
4%
$9,131,726 Vol.
April 10
$5,471,937 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan—the first in over a decade—concluded without agreement after 21 hours on April 12, led by Vice President JD Vance amid a fragile two-week ceasefire. Sticking points included Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional ceasefires involving proxies. Iranian officials cited US intransigence and lack of trust, prompting President Trump to announce a US naval blockade of Iranian ports starting April 14. With escalation looming and no new negotiations scheduled, trader consensus reflects diminished near-term prospects for further diplomacy, though backchannel communications via mediators like Pakistan could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$9,131,726End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan—the first in over a decade—concluded without agreement after 21 hours on April 12, led by Vice President JD Vance amid a fragile two-week ceasefire. Sticking points included Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional ceasefires involving proxies. Iranian officials cited US intransigence and lack of trust, prompting President Trump to announce a US naval blockade of Iranian ports starting April 14. With escalation looming and no new negotiations scheduled, trader consensus reflects diminished near-term prospects for further diplomacy, though backchannel communications via mediators like Pakistan could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,131,726End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
Direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan—the first in over a decade—concluded without agreement after 21 hours on April 12, led by Vice President JD Vance amid a fragile two-week ceasefire. Sticking points included Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional ceasefires involving proxies. Iranian officials cited US intransigence and lack of trust, prompting President Trump to announce a US naval blockade of Iranian ports starting April 14. With escalation looming and no new negotiations scheduled, trader consensus reflects diminished near-term prospects for further diplomacy, though backchannel communications via mediators like Pakistan could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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