Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by the recent 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce's swift collapse amid mutual accusations of nearly 2,000 violations each side claimed on April 12, highlighting persistent distrust and active hostilities. No substantive peace negotiations have advanced in the past 30 days, with Russia demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—refused by Kyiv—and the Kremlin dismissing Zelenskyy's proposals as temporary PR stunts rather than steps toward permanent peace. Ongoing drone strikes, frontline advances, and stalled diplomacy, including unfruitful envoy visits, reinforce the stalemate into the war's fifth year. While a sudden US-brokered breakthrough or major military reversal remains theoretically possible, historical patterns of failed short truces suggest low likelihood before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$6,387,271 Vol.
$6,387,271 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$6,387,271 Vol.
$6,387,271 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by the recent 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce's swift collapse amid mutual accusations of nearly 2,000 violations each side claimed on April 12, highlighting persistent distrust and active hostilities. No substantive peace negotiations have advanced in the past 30 days, with Russia demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—refused by Kyiv—and the Kremlin dismissing Zelenskyy's proposals as temporary PR stunts rather than steps toward permanent peace. Ongoing drone strikes, frontline advances, and stalled diplomacy, including unfruitful envoy visits, reinforce the stalemate into the war's fifth year. While a sudden US-brokered breakthrough or major military reversal remains theoretically possible, historical patterns of failed short truces suggest low likelihood before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$6,387,271End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by the recent 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce's swift collapse amid mutual accusations of nearly 2,000 violations each side claimed on April 12, highlighting persistent distrust and active hostilities. No substantive peace negotiations have advanced in the past 30 days, with Russia demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—refused by Kyiv—and the Kremlin dismissing Zelenskyy's proposals as temporary PR stunts rather than steps toward permanent peace. Ongoing drone strikes, frontline advances, and stalled diplomacy, including unfruitful envoy visits, reinforce the stalemate into the war's fifth year. While a sudden US-brokered breakthrough or major military reversal remains theoretically possible, historical patterns of failed short truces suggest low likelihood before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$6,387,273End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by the recent 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce's swift collapse amid mutual accusations of nearly 2,000 violations each side claimed on April 12, highlighting persistent distrust and active hostilities. No substantive peace negotiations have advanced in the past 30 days, with Russia demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—refused by Kyiv—and the Kremlin dismissing Zelenskyy's proposals as temporary PR stunts rather than steps toward permanent peace. Ongoing drone strikes, frontline advances, and stalled diplomacy, including unfruitful envoy visits, reinforce the stalemate into the war's fifth year. While a sudden US-brokered breakthrough or major military reversal remains theoretically possible, historical patterns of failed short truces suggest low likelihood before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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