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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 27.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 6.5%

Kamala Harris 6.2%

Polymarket

$1,036,217,446 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 27.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 6.5%

Kamala Harris 6.2%

Polymarket

$1,036,217,446 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$22,646,843 Vol.

27%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$11,812,263 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$8,002,077 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$9,654,880 Vol.

6%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,995,228 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$10,025,764 Vol.

4%

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Jon Stewart

$16,544,539 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$10,387,175 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$8,587,215 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$12,663,201 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$13,166,912 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$9,023,644 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,919,453 Vol.

1%

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Ruben Gallego

$4,175,224 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$18,079,582 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,843,962 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$14,129,066 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,919,360 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$12,369,149 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,456,842 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,372,966 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,791,670 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$26,528,752 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$44,497,909 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$34,227,600 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$45,706,624 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$12,415,529 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$27,055,760 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$28,075,472 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$38,400,241 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,036,487 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$34,143,350 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$43,760,096 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$21,773,051 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,703,799 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$36,140,850 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,895,222 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$29,614,318 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$35,999,850 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$34,899,653 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$37,188,911 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$33,289,972 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$27,866,756 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$41,438,900 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 27.4% implied probability as the Democratic presidential nominee for 2028, driven by his commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a March California primary poll and sustained national visibility through book tours critiquing the Trump administration. The wide-open field reflects post-2024 soul-searching, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8.2%) differentiating via progressive grassroots energy and recent Munich Security Conference exposure, while Sen. Jon Ossoff (6.5%) gains from a viral February anti-Trump Senate speech appealing to moderates in battleground Georgia. Harris (6.2%) trails despite April 10 remarks musing a comeback, burdened by her prior loss. Support could consolidate around 2026 midterm performers with strong fundraising and swing-state viability.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,036,217,446
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 27.4% implied probability as the Democratic presidential nominee for 2028, driven by his commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a March California primary poll and sustained national visibility through book tours critiquing the Trump administration. The wide-open field reflects post-2024 soul-searching, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8.2%) differentiating via progressive grassroots energy and recent Munich Security Conference exposure, while Sen. Jon Ossoff (6.5%) gains from a viral February anti-Trump Senate speech appealing to moderates in battleground Georgia. Harris (6.2%) trails despite April 10 remarks musing a comeback, burdened by her prior loss. Support could consolidate around 2026 midterm performers with strong fundraising and swing-state viability.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,036,217,446
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $1 billion in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.