Recent failure of high-stakes US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad has significantly dimmed prospects for a permanent peace deal, as talks hosted by Pakistan concluded on April 12 without agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending hostilities. A fragile two-week ceasefire, announced around April 8 following US and Israeli strikes amid the 2026 Iran war, remains in effect but faces immediate strain after President Trump directed a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships. Vice President JD Vance's 21-hour marathon sessions highlighted deep divides over nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional alliances. No follow-up diplomacy is scheduled, with traders weighing escalation risks against potential backchannel efforts via mediators like Pakistan.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$2,242,541 Vol.
Apr 22, 2026
April 22
8%
April 30
13%
May 31
28%
June 30
39%
$2,242,541 Vol.
April 22
$1,577,941 Vol.
8%
April 30
$348,075 Vol.
13%
May 31
$309,451 Vol.
28%
June 30
$9,056 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent failure of high-stakes US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad has significantly dimmed prospects for a permanent peace deal, as talks hosted by Pakistan concluded on April 12 without agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending hostilities. A fragile two-week ceasefire, announced around April 8 following US and Israeli strikes amid the 2026 Iran war, remains in effect but faces immediate strain after President Trump directed a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships. Vice President JD Vance's 21-hour marathon sessions highlighted deep divides over nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional alliances. No follow-up diplomacy is scheduled, with traders weighing escalation risks against potential backchannel efforts via mediators like Pakistan.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volume
$2,242,541End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent failure of high-stakes US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad has significantly dimmed prospects for a permanent peace deal, as talks hosted by Pakistan concluded on April 12 without agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending hostilities. A fragile two-week ceasefire, announced around April 8 following US and Israeli strikes amid the 2026 Iran war, remains in effect but faces immediate strain after President Trump directed a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships. Vice President JD Vance's 21-hour marathon sessions highlighted deep divides over nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional alliances. No follow-up diplomacy is scheduled, with traders weighing escalation risks against potential backchannel efforts via mediators like Pakistan.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,242,541End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent failure of high-stakes US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad has significantly dimmed prospects for a permanent peace deal, as talks hosted by Pakistan concluded on April 12 without agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending hostilities. A fragile two-week ceasefire, announced around April 8 following US and Israeli strikes amid the 2026 Iran war, remains in effect but faces immediate strain after President Trump directed a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships. Vice President JD Vance's 21-hour marathon sessions highlighted deep divides over nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional alliances. No follow-up diplomacy is scheduled, with traders weighing escalation risks against potential backchannel efforts via mediators like Pakistan.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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