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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella 23%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Marine Le Pen 7%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 7%

Polymarket

$37,967,888 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 23%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Marine Le Pen 7%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 7%

Polymarket

$37,967,888 Vol.

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Jordan Bardella

$714,770 Vol.

23%

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Édouard Philippe

$503,020 Vol.

23%

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Marine Le Pen

$366,299 Vol.

7%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$317,919 Vol.

7%

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Dominique de Villepin

$933,017 Vol.

6%

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David Lisnard

$861,859 Vol.

5%

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Gabriel Attal

$966,823 Vol.

3%

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Bruno Retailleau

$1,042,348 Vol.

3%

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François Hollande

$678,484 Vol.

3%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$582,363 Vol.

2%

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Jean Castex

$577,945 Vol.

2%

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Sarah Knafo

$1,060,569 Vol.

2%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$739,144 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Gérald Darmanin

$486,731 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Éric Zemmour

$523,270 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Fabien Roussel

$1,510,713 Vol.

1%

Market icon

François Ruffin

$451,825 Vol.

1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$1,491,183 Vol.

1%

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Manuel Bompard

$1,348,265 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Juan Branco

$396,664 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Xavier Bertrand

$1,145,029 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Olivier Faure

$1,266,368 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ségolène Royal

$1,494,031 Vol.

1%

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Clémentine Autain

$2,026,659 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$1,520,981 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Clémence Guetté

$1,823,526 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Laurent Wauquiez

$616,280 Vol.

1%

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François Asselineau

$1,932,358 Vol.

1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$1,825,177 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$641,746 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Michel Barnier

$1,436,811 Vol.

1%

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François Bayrou

$1,882,715 Vol.

1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,623,856 Vol.

<1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$630,575 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mathilde Panot

$1,491,625 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Carole Delga

$1,059,575 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls following March 2026 municipal elections, including Elabe for BFMTV and Ipsos for Le Figaro, place National Rally's Jordan Bardella at 35-38% in first-round presidential intentions for April 2027, with Édouard Philippe of Horizons rising to 16-20% after his Le Havre mayoral reelection, creating the tight trader consensus. Municipal results curbed RN's urban gains despite national polling strength, positioning Philippe as the strongest center-right runoff contender—polls like Odoxa show him edging Bardella 52-48%. Left fragmentation caps Mélenchon and others below 10%, while no right-wing primaries have clarified fields. Separation could arise from RN internal dynamics, left coalitions, or scandals ahead of the April 11 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$37,967,888
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls following March 2026 municipal elections, including Elabe for BFMTV and Ipsos for Le Figaro, place National Rally's Jordan Bardella at 35-38% in first-round presidential intentions for April 2027, with Édouard Philippe of Horizons rising to 16-20% after his Le Havre mayoral reelection, creating the tight trader consensus. Municipal results curbed RN's urban gains despite national polling strength, positioning Philippe as the strongest center-right runoff contender—polls like Odoxa show him edging Bardella 52-48%. Left fragmentation caps Mélenchon and others below 10%, while no right-wing primaries have clarified fields. Separation could arise from RN internal dynamics, left coalitions, or scandals ahead of the April 11 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$37,967,888
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 23%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $38 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.