US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, failing to extend a fragile two-week ceasefire amid disputes over Strait of Hormuz access and mutual red lines. Tehran accused the US team of lacking trust-building measures, while Washington cited Iran's unwillingness to meet key demands, heightening escalation risks as President Trump warned of a naval blockade. Pakistan continues mediating, but no follow-up sessions are confirmed, with Russia signaling interest in stepping in. Traders weigh this setback against historical patterns of intermittent diplomacy in high-tension periods, with upcoming deadlines like the ceasefire's end potentially prompting renewed bilateral or multilateral efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
$8,760,020 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
April 10
25%
$8,760,020 Vol.
April 10
$5,099,860 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, failing to extend a fragile two-week ceasefire amid disputes over Strait of Hormuz access and mutual red lines. Tehran accused the US team of lacking trust-building measures, while Washington cited Iran's unwillingness to meet key demands, heightening escalation risks as President Trump warned of a naval blockade. Pakistan continues mediating, but no follow-up sessions are confirmed, with Russia signaling interest in stepping in. Traders weigh this setback against historical patterns of intermittent diplomacy in high-tension periods, with upcoming deadlines like the ceasefire's end potentially prompting renewed bilateral or multilateral efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$8,760,020End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, failing to extend a fragile two-week ceasefire amid disputes over Strait of Hormuz access and mutual red lines. Tehran accused the US team of lacking trust-building measures, while Washington cited Iran's unwillingness to meet key demands, heightening escalation risks as President Trump warned of a naval blockade. Pakistan continues mediating, but no follow-up sessions are confirmed, with Russia signaling interest in stepping in. Traders weigh this setback against historical patterns of intermittent diplomacy in high-tension periods, with upcoming deadlines like the ceasefire's end potentially prompting renewed bilateral or multilateral efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,760,020End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, failing to extend a fragile two-week ceasefire amid disputes over Strait of Hormuz access and mutual red lines. Tehran accused the US team of lacking trust-building measures, while Washington cited Iran's unwillingness to meet key demands, heightening escalation risks as President Trump warned of a naval blockade. Pakistan continues mediating, but no follow-up sessions are confirmed, with Russia signaling interest in stepping in. Traders weigh this setback against historical patterns of intermittent diplomacy in high-tension periods, with upcoming deadlines like the ceasefire's end potentially prompting renewed bilateral or multilateral efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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