A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8, 2026, remains the dominant factor shaping trader consensus after six weeks of intense conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear sites, and missile infrastructure. Iran retaliated with widespread missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states, closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global energy flows. Recent strains include a failed Iranian drone attack on Bahrain on April 11, ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 12. With the ceasefire nearing expiration mid-April, traders monitor potential escalations like renewed airstrikes or naval blockades amid diplomatic pushes for de-escalation and Hormuz reopening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$37,869,376 Vol.
Apr 7, 2026
April 7
55%
April 15
56%
April 30
59%
May 15
65%
June 30
79%
December 31
93%
$37,869,376 Vol.
April 7
$13,817,704 Vol.
55%
April 15
$7,842,035 Vol.
56%
April 30
$3,538,677 Vol.
59%
May 15
$3,215,382 Vol.
65%
June 30
$2,666,055 Vol.
79%
December 31
$1,633,283 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8, 2026, remains the dominant factor shaping trader consensus after six weeks of intense conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear sites, and missile infrastructure. Iran retaliated with widespread missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states, closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global energy flows. Recent strains include a failed Iranian drone attack on Bahrain on April 11, ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 12. With the ceasefire nearing expiration mid-April, traders monitor potential escalations like renewed airstrikes or naval blockades amid diplomatic pushes for de-escalation and Hormuz reopening.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
Volume
$37,869,376End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8, 2026, remains the dominant factor shaping trader consensus after six weeks of intense conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear sites, and missile infrastructure. Iran retaliated with widespread missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states, closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global energy flows. Recent strains include a failed Iranian drone attack on Bahrain on April 11, ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 12. With the ceasefire nearing expiration mid-April, traders monitor potential escalations like renewed airstrikes or naval blockades amid diplomatic pushes for de-escalation and Hormuz reopening.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$37,869,376End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8, 2026, remains the dominant factor shaping trader consensus after six weeks of intense conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 targeting Iranian leadership, nuclear sites, and missile infrastructure. Iran retaliated with widespread missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states, closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global energy flows. Recent strains include a failed Iranian drone attack on Bahrain on April 11, ongoing Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 12. With the ceasefire nearing expiration mid-April, traders monitor potential escalations like renewed airstrikes or naval blockades amid diplomatic pushes for de-escalation and Hormuz reopening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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