Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 320-359 total tweets for Elon Musk from April 10-17, with 320-339 leading at 16.6% implied probability and 340-359 close behind at 14.8%, reflecting a projected 40-45 posts per day amid his variable posting patterns. This competitive spread stems from an explosive early pace—172 posts already at 43% time elapsed per XTracker data, averaging ~50 daily—but tempered by historical averages of 30-60 tweets/day and risks of slowdowns during non-event periods. Key differentiators include sustained high engagement from viral political replies on Hungary's elections and South Africa business hurdles, plus Tesla FSD approvals in Europe, versus potential lulls absent major SpaceX or policy catalysts before April 17 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated320-339 16.7%
340-359 14.8%
360-379 12.8%
380-399 11.8%
$4,405,938 Vol.
$4,405,938 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
1%
260-279
2%
280-299
6%
300-319
12%
320-339
17%
340-359
15%
360-379
13%
380-399
12%
400-419
8%
420-439
6%
440-459
4%
460-479
3%
480-499
2%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
320-339 16.7%
340-359 14.8%
360-379 12.8%
380-399 11.8%
$4,405,938 Vol.
$4,405,938 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
160-179
$184,566 Vol.
<1%
180-199
$149,787 Vol.
<1%
200-219
$174,881 Vol.
<1%
220-239
$155,172 Vol.
<1%
240-259
$183,065 Vol.
1%
260-279
$137,219 Vol.
2%
280-299
$130,893 Vol.
6%
300-319
$101,104 Vol.
12%
320-339
$106,633 Vol.
17%
340-359
$89,724 Vol.
15%
360-379
$98,579 Vol.
13%
380-399
$114,335 Vol.
12%
400-419
$95,269 Vol.
8%
420-439
$111,442 Vol.
6%
440-459
$126,717 Vol.
4%
460-479
$85,509 Vol.
3%
480-499
$120,201 Vol.
2%
500-519
$169,078 Vol.
1%
520-539
$188,202 Vol.
<1%
540-559
$169,542 Vol.
<1%
560-579
$143,767 Vol.
<1%
580+
$182,731 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 320-359 total tweets for Elon Musk from April 10-17, with 320-339 leading at 16.6% implied probability and 340-359 close behind at 14.8%, reflecting a projected 40-45 posts per day amid his variable posting patterns. This competitive spread stems from an explosive early pace—172 posts already at 43% time elapsed per XTracker data, averaging ~50 daily—but tempered by historical averages of 30-60 tweets/day and risks of slowdowns during non-event periods. Key differentiators include sustained high engagement from viral political replies on Hungary's elections and South Africa business hurdles, plus Tesla FSD approvals in Europe, versus potential lulls absent major SpaceX or policy catalysts before April 17 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,405,938End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 320-359 total tweets for Elon Musk from April 10-17, with 320-339 leading at 16.6% implied probability and 340-359 close behind at 14.8%, reflecting a projected 40-45 posts per day amid his variable posting patterns. This competitive spread stems from an explosive early pace—172 posts already at 43% time elapsed per XTracker data, averaging ~50 daily—but tempered by historical averages of 30-60 tweets/day and risks of slowdowns during non-event periods. Key differentiators include sustained high engagement from viral political replies on Hungary's elections and South Africa business hurdles, plus Tesla FSD approvals in Europe, versus potential lulls absent major SpaceX or policy catalysts before April 17 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$4,405,938End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 320-359 total tweets for Elon Musk from April 10-17, with 320-339 leading at 16.6% implied probability and 340-359 close behind at 14.8%, reflecting a projected 40-45 posts per day amid his variable posting patterns. This competitive spread stems from an explosive early pace—172 posts already at 43% time elapsed per XTracker data, averaging ~50 daily—but tempered by historical averages of 30-60 tweets/day and risks of slowdowns during non-event periods. Key differentiators include sustained high engagement from viral political replies on Hungary's elections and South Africa business hurdles, plus Tesla FSD approvals in Europe, versus potential lulls absent major SpaceX or policy catalysts before April 17 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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