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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 27.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 6.4%

Kamala Harris 6.2%

Polymarket

$1,034,686,284 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 27.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 6.4%

Kamala Harris 6.2%

Polymarket

$1,034,686,284 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$22,567,576 Vol.

27%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$11,681,101 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$8,000,000 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$9,645,590 Vol.

6%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,991,402 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$10,022,029 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$10,336,061 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$16,498,490 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$8,580,736 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$12,649,726 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$13,156,126 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$9,023,453 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,889,477 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,834,429 Vol.

1%

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Ruben Gallego

$4,173,755 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$18,055,722 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$14,127,858 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,882,865 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,437,647 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,351,736 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,764,031 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$26,505,231 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$44,423,197 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$12,363,007 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$34,186,435 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$45,642,863 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$12,361,204 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,995,134 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$28,011,830 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$38,330,988 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,973,851 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$34,089,674 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$43,715,890 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$21,720,347 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,667,904 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$36,106,683 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,846,874 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$29,575,996 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$35,972,376 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$34,877,465 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$37,166,707 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$33,276,493 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$27,837,203 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$41,383,959 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 27% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a wide-open field following the 2024 election, buoyed by his executive experience as California governor, strong early national polling averages around 16-20%, and fundraising dominance positioning him as a leading Trump critic. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth among primary voters, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects rising Georgia swing-state momentum. Recent National Action Network forum in New York saw Kamala Harris draw strong Black voter reception amid signals of interest, yet her 6% lags amid post-2024 scrutiny. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, DNC endorsements, and donor shifts before Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,034,686,284
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 27% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a wide-open field following the 2024 election, buoyed by his executive experience as California governor, strong early national polling averages around 16-20%, and fundraising dominance positioning him as a leading Trump critic. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth among primary voters, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects rising Georgia swing-state momentum. Recent National Action Network forum in New York saw Kamala Harris draw strong Black voter reception amid signals of interest, yet her 6% lags amid post-2024 scrutiny. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, DNC endorsements, and donor shifts before Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,034,686,284
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $1 billion in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.