Failed US-Iran ceasefire extension talks in Islamabad ended April 12 without agreement, with both sides blaming the other amid Iran's rejection of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command announced a blockade of Iranian Gulf ports starting midnight April 13, signaling potential naval escalation despite a fragile two-week truce brokered by Pakistan on April 8. This follows Operation Epic Fury—intense US-Israeli airstrikes since late February targeting Iranian missiles, nuclear sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—which suppressed Tehran's capabilities but prompted retaliatory missile barrages and Hormuz disruptions. No verified US or Israeli aerial strikes on Iranian soil reported since before April 7, though proxy actions and Israeli operations in Lebanon continue; traders weigh if this lull meets "end of military action" criteria, with risks from naval clashes or renewed airstrikes ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$3,645,549 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 17
100%
$3,645,549 Vol.
April 17
$863,539 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Failed US-Iran ceasefire extension talks in Islamabad ended April 12 without agreement, with both sides blaming the other amid Iran's rejection of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command announced a blockade of Iranian Gulf ports starting midnight April 13, signaling potential naval escalation despite a fragile two-week truce brokered by Pakistan on April 8. This follows Operation Epic Fury—intense US-Israeli airstrikes since late February targeting Iranian missiles, nuclear sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—which suppressed Tehran's capabilities but prompted retaliatory missile barrages and Hormuz disruptions. No verified US or Israeli aerial strikes on Iranian soil reported since before April 7, though proxy actions and Israeli operations in Lebanon continue; traders weigh if this lull meets "end of military action" criteria, with risks from naval clashes or renewed airstrikes ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$3,645,549End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Failed US-Iran ceasefire extension talks in Islamabad ended April 12 without agreement, with both sides blaming the other amid Iran's rejection of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command announced a blockade of Iranian Gulf ports starting midnight April 13, signaling potential naval escalation despite a fragile two-week truce brokered by Pakistan on April 8. This follows Operation Epic Fury—intense US-Israeli airstrikes since late February targeting Iranian missiles, nuclear sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—which suppressed Tehran's capabilities but prompted retaliatory missile barrages and Hormuz disruptions. No verified US or Israeli aerial strikes on Iranian soil reported since before April 7, though proxy actions and Israeli operations in Lebanon continue; traders weigh if this lull meets "end of military action" criteria, with risks from naval clashes or renewed airstrikes ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,645,549End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
Failed US-Iran ceasefire extension talks in Islamabad ended April 12 without agreement, with both sides blaming the other amid Iran's rejection of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command announced a blockade of Iranian Gulf ports starting midnight April 13, signaling potential naval escalation despite a fragile two-week truce brokered by Pakistan on April 8. This follows Operation Epic Fury—intense US-Israeli airstrikes since late February targeting Iranian missiles, nuclear sites, air defenses, and infrastructure—which suppressed Tehran's capabilities but prompted retaliatory missile barrages and Hormuz disruptions. No verified US or Israeli aerial strikes on Iranian soil reported since before April 7, though proxy actions and Israeli operations in Lebanon continue; traders weigh if this lull meets "end of military action" criteria, with risks from naval clashes or renewed airstrikes ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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