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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 9.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$520,539,582 Vol.

JD Vance 18.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 9.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.5%

Polymarket

$520,539,582 Vol.

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JD Vance

$10,153,838 Vol.

19%

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Gavin Newsom

$13,947,038 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$6,330,242 Vol.

9%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,876,792 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,444,429 Vol.

4%

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Kamala Harris

$6,973,947 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,876,398 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,786,217 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,938,050 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,706,432 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,847,560 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$6,167,648 Vol.

1%

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Andy Beshear

$17,434,249 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,798,835 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,843,526 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,772,003 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$4,354,039 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,682,366 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$8,566,028 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,880,737 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,624,015 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,575,074 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,624,563 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$7,123,808 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$29,631,661 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$9,241,082 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$22,128,195 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$17,617,900 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$6,623,519 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$39,556,475 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$6,511,034 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$28,235,956 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$4,465,841 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$31,032,155 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,772,267 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$46,398,384 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 18.8% implied probability, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.7%, driven by Vance's high-profile leadership in U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan over the April 11-12 weekend—yielding no deal but boosting his foreign policy visibility amid ongoing Middle East tensions. A late-March UMass Lowell poll showed Vance edging Newsom 33%-30% in a head-to-head matchup, underscoring the tight contest reflective of early-stage speculation before 2026 midterms. The race remains fragmented with Sen. Marco Rubio at 9.4%, as no clear frontrunners have emerged amid Democratic post-2024 introspection and GOP incumbency dynamics; midterm outcomes, Trump endorsements, or primary endorsements could create separation by clarifying paths to nomination and Electoral College viability.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$520,539,582
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 18.8% implied probability, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.7%, driven by Vance's high-profile leadership in U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan over the April 11-12 weekend—yielding no deal but boosting his foreign policy visibility amid ongoing Middle East tensions. A late-March UMass Lowell poll showed Vance edging Newsom 33%-30% in a head-to-head matchup, underscoring the tight contest reflective of early-stage speculation before 2026 midterms. The race remains fragmented with Sen. Marco Rubio at 9.4%, as no clear frontrunners have emerged amid Democratic post-2024 introspection and GOP incumbency dynamics; midterm outcomes, Trump endorsements, or primary endorsements could create separation by clarifying paths to nomination and Electoral College viability.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$520,539,582
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 19%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $520.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.