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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Hungary PM 88%

Takaichi - Japan PM 2.1%

Macron - France President 1.0%

Trump - USA President 1.0%

Polymarket

$4,074,315 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM 88%

Takaichi - Japan PM 2.1%

Macron - France President 1.0%

Trump - USA President 1.0%

Polymarket

$4,074,315 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM

$54,851 Vol.

88%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$371,183 Vol.

2%

Macron - France President

$105,314 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$247,561 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$379,706 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$75,098 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$45,779 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$51,528 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$1,037,856 Vol.

1%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$44,092 Vol.

1%

Starmer - UK PM

$573,133 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$136,692 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$42,127 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$101,713 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - France PM

$101,230 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$50,857 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$49,709 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$82,970 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$56,683 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$75,858 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$128,715 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$60,078 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$85,849 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$57,409 Vol.

<1%

Petro - Colombia President

$58,325 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceded defeat in the April 12 parliamentary election after Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party secured a landslide victory, ending Fidesz's 16-year rule amid record 77.8% turnout driven by economic discontent, EU disputes, and corruption scandals. Pre-election polls consistently showed Tisza leading 50-52% to Fidesz's 37-40%, shifting trader consensus to price Orbán at 89% implied probability of being the next leader out of power before 2027—effectively confirmed by his ouster. Other outcomes trail far behind due to no comparable catalysts: stable terms for Putin (to 2030), Trump (to 2029), Macron, and Zelenskyy (martial law extension); Japan's Takaichi lacks imminent challenges; no snap elections or no-confidence votes threaten Netanyahu, Xi, or Latin American leaders. Coalition talks may formalize Hungary's transition, but Orbán's exit dominates market positioning.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,074,315
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceded defeat in the April 12 parliamentary election after Péter Magyar's center-right Tisza party secured a landslide victory, ending Fidesz's 16-year rule amid record 77.8% turnout driven by economic discontent, EU disputes, and corruption scandals. Pre-election polls consistently showed Tisza leading 50-52% to Fidesz's 37-40%, shifting trader consensus to price Orbán at 89% implied probability of being the next leader out of power before 2027—effectively confirmed by his ouster. Other outcomes trail far behind due to no comparable catalysts: stable terms for Putin (to 2030), Trump (to 2029), Macron, and Zelenskyy (martial law extension); Japan's Takaichi lacks imminent challenges; no snap elections or no-confidence votes threaten Netanyahu, Xi, or Latin American leaders. Coalition talks may formalize Hungary's transition, but Orbán's exit dominates market positioning.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,074,315
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 88%, followed by "Takaichi - Japan PM" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027?" has generated $4.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Takaichi - Japan PM" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.