Politics predictions & odds

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Military action against Iran ends by...?

Military action against Iran ends by...?

100%

April 17

$16M Vol.

$13M today

$6M Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Peru Presidential Election Winner

50%

Keiko Fujimori

$22M Vol.

$6M today

$3M Liq.

2,210

Ends in about 2 months

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

28%

Gavin Newsom

$1B Vol.

$6M today

$48M Liq.

659

Ends in over 2 years

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

99%

Péter Magyar

$88M Vol.

$4M today

$6M Liq.

2,049

Elon Musk # tweets April 7 - April 14, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets April 7 - April 14, 2026?

43%

300-319

$11M Vol.

$3M today

$1M Liq.

1

Ends in about 16 hours

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%

JD Vance

$522M Vol.

$3M today

$30M Liq.

849

Ends in over 2 years

Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place

Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place

91%

Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)

$11M Vol.

$3M today

$49.5K Liq.

18

Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

98%

No change

$79M Vol.

$3M today

$3M Liq.

7

Ends in 15 days

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

39%

J.D. Vance

$550M Vol.

$3M today

$31M Liq.

348

Ends in over 2 years

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

96%

December 31

$40M Vol.

$2M today

$898K Liq.

2,024

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

78%

June 30

$22M Vol.

$1M today

$507K Liq.

450

Ends in 3 months

Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026?

Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026?

15%

1240-1279

$7M Vol.

$1M today

$455K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

<1%

April 10

$10M Vol.

$1M today

$325K Liq.

1

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

48%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$1M today

$355K Liq.

91

Ends in about 2 months

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

91%

Chong Won-oh

$21M Vol.

$1M today

$2M Liq.

27

Ends in about 2 months

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

18%

June 30

$23M Vol.

$1M today

$723K Liq.

335

Elon Musk # tweets April 10 - April 17, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets April 10 - April 17, 2026?

24%

320-339

$5M Vol.

$1M today

$834K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

25%

Jordan Bardella

$38M Vol.

$1M today

$4M Liq.

400

Ends in about 1 year

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

94%

Kevin Warsh

$28M Vol.

$954K today

$1M Liq.

79

Ends in 7 months

Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil Presidential Election

40%

Flávio Bolsonaro

$50M Vol.

$843K today

$4M Liq.

4,244

Ends in 6 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Politics.

Polymarket currently hosts 1426 active markets for Politics that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Military action against Iran ends by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $2.6B in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 28% chance to Gavin Newsom. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Politics predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.