Iran Ceasefire predictions & odds

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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

94%

December 31

$39M Vol.

$2M today

$762K Liq.

1,967

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

2%

April 10

$9M Vol.

$1M today

$141K Liq.

1

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

73%

June 30

$22M Vol.

$1M today

$289K Liq.

446

Ends in 3 months

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

43%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$1M today

$211K Liq.

72

Ends in about 2 months

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?

28%

April 21

$3M Vol.

$764K today

$135K Liq.

88

Ends in 7 days

Israel military action against Iran by...?

Israel military action against Iran by...?

32%

April 21

$934K Vol.

$429K today

$98.9K Liq.

24

Ends in 7 days

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

55%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$309K today

$116K Liq.

251

Ends in 3 months

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

47%

April 30

$254K Vol.

$254K today

$60.3K Liq.

12

Ends in 16 days

US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?

US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?

56%

April 21

$514K Vol.

$145K today

$69.9K Liq.

10

Ends in 7 days

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

36%

April 21

$406K Vol.

$130K today

$38.0K Liq.

23

Ends in 7 days

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

46%

December 31

$580K Vol.

$123K today

$68.3K Liq.

7

Ends in 9 months

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

10%

$146K Vol.

$122K today

$20.9K Liq.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

84%

April 30

$105K Vol.

$105K today

$50.0K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

21%

Oil Sanction Relief

$346K Vol.

$102K today

$86.7K Liq.

14

Ends in 16 days

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

23%

$1M Vol.

$95.8K today

$19.6K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

96%

April 19

$212K Vol.

$86.8K today

$37.8K Liq.

33

Ends in about 7 hours

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

19%

$2M Vol.

$65.8K today

$111K Liq.

34

Ends in about 2 months

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

18%

$704K Vol.

$16.4K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

82%

Pakistan

$37.1K Vol.

$75.0K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

32%

$297K Vol.

$34.4K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 24 active markets for Iran Ceasefire that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $86.5M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 94% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Iran Ceasefire predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.