A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, agreed around April 7 amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, showed cracks on April 12 as negotiations in Islamabad ended without progress, prompting IDF high alert and reports of Israel preparing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field. This follows US-backed Israeli airstrikes since February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, and petrochemical complexes, including recent hits on Mahshahr in early April. Tensions center on Iran's Strait of Hormuz restrictions and potential escalation signals, with US diplomatic pressure under President Trump and upcoming deadlines around April 21 that could trigger renewed military action or further talks. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in de-escalation amid proxy conflicts in Lebanon and Yemen.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
$713,666 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
April 14
12%
April 21
51%
$713,666 Vol.
April 14
$505,761 Vol.
12%
April 21
$207,920 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, agreed around April 7 amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, showed cracks on April 12 as negotiations in Islamabad ended without progress, prompting IDF high alert and reports of Israel preparing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field. This follows US-backed Israeli airstrikes since February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, and petrochemical complexes, including recent hits on Mahshahr in early April. Tensions center on Iran's Strait of Hormuz restrictions and potential escalation signals, with US diplomatic pressure under President Trump and upcoming deadlines around April 21 that could trigger renewed military action or further talks. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in de-escalation amid proxy conflicts in Lebanon and Yemen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$713,666End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, agreed around April 7 amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, showed cracks on April 12 as negotiations in Islamabad ended without progress, prompting IDF high alert and reports of Israel preparing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field. This follows US-backed Israeli airstrikes since February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, and petrochemical complexes, including recent hits on Mahshahr in early April. Tensions center on Iran's Strait of Hormuz restrictions and potential escalation signals, with US diplomatic pressure under President Trump and upcoming deadlines around April 21 that could trigger renewed military action or further talks. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in de-escalation amid proxy conflicts in Lebanon and Yemen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$713,666End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, agreed around April 7 amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, showed cracks on April 12 as negotiations in Islamabad ended without progress, prompting IDF high alert and reports of Israel preparing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field. This follows US-backed Israeli airstrikes since February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, and petrochemical complexes, including recent hits on Mahshahr in early April. Tensions center on Iran's Strait of Hormuz restrictions and potential escalation signals, with US diplomatic pressure under President Trump and upcoming deadlines around April 21 that could trigger renewed military action or further talks. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in de-escalation amid proxy conflicts in Lebanon and Yemen.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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