A fragile ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by joint airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, showed cracks as US-led talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12. Israel has since launched targeted strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field, Mahshahr petrochemical complex, and arms production, aiming to curb missile threats and uranium enrichment amid proxy escalations via Hezbollah. President Trump's ultimatums demand Strait of Hormuz reopening, with reports of Israel preparing energy infrastructure hits pending US approval. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential retaliatory missile barrages, and regional actors like Turkey for catalysts tipping de-escalation or renewed airstrikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
$693,300 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
April 14
12%
April 21
62%
$693,300 Vol.
April 14
$495,579 Vol.
12%
April 21
$199,944 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by joint airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, showed cracks as US-led talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12. Israel has since launched targeted strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field, Mahshahr petrochemical complex, and arms production, aiming to curb missile threats and uranium enrichment amid proxy escalations via Hezbollah. President Trump's ultimatums demand Strait of Hormuz reopening, with reports of Israel preparing energy infrastructure hits pending US approval. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential retaliatory missile barrages, and regional actors like Turkey for catalysts tipping de-escalation or renewed airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$693,300End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by joint airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, showed cracks as US-led talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12. Israel has since launched targeted strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field, Mahshahr petrochemical complex, and arms production, aiming to curb missile threats and uranium enrichment amid proxy escalations via Hezbollah. President Trump's ultimatums demand Strait of Hormuz reopening, with reports of Israel preparing energy infrastructure hits pending US approval. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential retaliatory missile barrages, and regional actors like Turkey for catalysts tipping de-escalation or renewed airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$693,300End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by joint airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, showed cracks as US-led talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12. Israel has since launched targeted strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field, Mahshahr petrochemical complex, and arms production, aiming to curb missile threats and uranium enrichment amid proxy escalations via Hezbollah. President Trump's ultimatums demand Strait of Hormuz reopening, with reports of Israel preparing energy infrastructure hits pending US approval. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential retaliatory missile barrages, and regional actors like Turkey for catalysts tipping de-escalation or renewed airstrikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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