Trader consensus favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 62.5%, driven by the dramatic collapse of marathon direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where US negotiators led by Vice President JD Vance departed after 21 hours without agreement, citing Iran's refusal to disavow its nuclear program or meet key demands on Strait of Hormuz access and ceasefire terms. President Trump's subsequent warning of a "locked and loaded" US military response, coupled with deployment of a carrier strike group, signals escalation over compromise amid stalled 2025-2026 negotiations. Iran's insistence on sanctions relief without full nuclear curbs, alongside historical JCPOA tensions, underscores deep divides, with no scheduled follow-up talks leaving slim prospects for resolution in under three months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$1,109,218 Vol.
$1,109,218 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$1,109,218 Vol.
$1,109,218 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 62.5%, driven by the dramatic collapse of marathon direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where US negotiators led by Vice President JD Vance departed after 21 hours without agreement, citing Iran's refusal to disavow its nuclear program or meet key demands on Strait of Hormuz access and ceasefire terms. President Trump's subsequent warning of a "locked and loaded" US military response, coupled with deployment of a carrier strike group, signals escalation over compromise amid stalled 2025-2026 negotiations. Iran's insistence on sanctions relief without full nuclear curbs, alongside historical JCPOA tensions, underscores deep divides, with no scheduled follow-up talks leaving slim prospects for resolution in under three months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$1,109,218End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 62.5%, driven by the dramatic collapse of marathon direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where US negotiators led by Vice President JD Vance departed after 21 hours without agreement, citing Iran's refusal to disavow its nuclear program or meet key demands on Strait of Hormuz access and ceasefire terms. President Trump's subsequent warning of a "locked and loaded" US military response, coupled with deployment of a carrier strike group, signals escalation over compromise amid stalled 2025-2026 negotiations. Iran's insistence on sanctions relief without full nuclear curbs, alongside historical JCPOA tensions, underscores deep divides, with no scheduled follow-up talks leaving slim prospects for resolution in under three months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,109,218End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 62.5%, driven by the dramatic collapse of marathon direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where US negotiators led by Vice President JD Vance departed after 21 hours without agreement, citing Iran's refusal to disavow its nuclear program or meet key demands on Strait of Hormuz access and ceasefire terms. President Trump's subsequent warning of a "locked and loaded" US military response, coupled with deployment of a carrier strike group, signals escalation over compromise amid stalled 2025-2026 negotiations. Iran's insistence on sanctions relief without full nuclear curbs, alongside historical JCPOA tensions, underscores deep divides, with no scheduled follow-up talks leaving slim prospects for resolution in under three months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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