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Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

25% chance
Polymarket

$1,037,265 Vol.

25% chance
Polymarket

$1,037,265 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours without agreement on nuclear constraints or Strait of Hormuz access, solidifying trader consensus at 74.7% for no deal by April 30. Vice President JD Vance announced Iran's rejection of Washington's "final offer," demanding verifiable curbs on uranium enrichment and weaponization paths, while Tehran countered with accusations of US inflexibility on sanctions relief and regional concessions. This deadlock follows fragile February rounds that yielded no breakthrough, amid a tenuous ceasefire and fresh US naval blockades on Iranian ports. Absent scheduled follow-ups or major diplomatic shifts, crowdsourced odds reflect entrenched barriers in these high-stakes nuclear diplomacy efforts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,037,265
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours without agreement on nuclear constraints or Strait of Hormuz access, solidifying trader consensus at 74.7% for no deal by April 30. Vice President JD Vance announced Iran's rejection of Washington's "final offer," demanding verifiable curbs on uranium enrichment and weaponization paths, while Tehran countered with accusations of US inflexibility on sanctions relief and regional concessions. This deadlock follows fragile February rounds that yielded no breakthrough, amid a tenuous ceasefire and fresh US naval blockades on Iranian ports. Absent scheduled follow-ups or major diplomatic shifts, crowdsourced odds reflect entrenched barriers in these high-stakes nuclear diplomacy efforts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,037,265
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 25% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 25¢, the market collectively assigns a 25% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?" is 25% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 25% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.