President Donald Trump's April 8 warning of 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran—posted on Truth Social and echoed in media—constituted a broad foreign policy threat amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, but fell short of the market's criteria for a qualifying announcement of imposed tariffs explicitly tied to a specific nation's military cooperation with Tehran. Recent Fox News interviews reiterated the warning against reported Chinese arms shipments, including a Y-20 cargo plane landing in Iran, yet no executive actions or named tariffs have materialized, with diplomatic signals of potential ceasefires and China-mediated talks adding de-escalation pressure. With just days until the April 17 resolution, traders see slim odds of sudden imposition barring verified provocations or breakdowns in negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$51,504 Vol.
$51,504 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
$51,504 Vol.
$51,504 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Donald Trump's April 8 warning of 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran—posted on Truth Social and echoed in media—constituted a broad foreign policy threat amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, but fell short of the market's criteria for a qualifying announcement of imposed tariffs explicitly tied to a specific nation's military cooperation with Tehran. Recent Fox News interviews reiterated the warning against reported Chinese arms shipments, including a Y-20 cargo plane landing in Iran, yet no executive actions or named tariffs have materialized, with diplomatic signals of potential ceasefires and China-mediated talks adding de-escalation pressure. With just days until the April 17 resolution, traders see slim odds of sudden imposition barring verified provocations or breakdowns in negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$51,504End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Donald Trump's April 8 warning of 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran—posted on Truth Social and echoed in media—constituted a broad foreign policy threat amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, but fell short of the market's criteria for a qualifying announcement of imposed tariffs explicitly tied to a specific nation's military cooperation with Tehran. Recent Fox News interviews reiterated the warning against reported Chinese arms shipments, including a Y-20 cargo plane landing in Iran, yet no executive actions or named tariffs have materialized, with diplomatic signals of potential ceasefires and China-mediated talks adding de-escalation pressure. With just days until the April 17 resolution, traders see slim odds of sudden imposition barring verified provocations or breakdowns in negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$51,504End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump's April 8 warning of 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran—posted on Truth Social and echoed in media—constituted a broad foreign policy threat amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, but fell short of the market's criteria for a qualifying announcement of imposed tariffs explicitly tied to a specific nation's military cooperation with Tehran. Recent Fox News interviews reiterated the warning against reported Chinese arms shipments, including a Y-20 cargo plane landing in Iran, yet no executive actions or named tariffs have materialized, with diplomatic signals of potential ceasefires and China-mediated talks adding de-escalation pressure. With just days until the April 17 resolution, traders see slim odds of sudden imposition barring verified provocations or breakdowns in negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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