Marathon US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 without agreement, primarily over Tehran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment—a core US demand Iran deems a sovereign right and non-negotiable. President Trump warned of imminent military action, including a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade, escalating tensions amid IAEA reports confirming Iran's denial of access to four declared enrichment facilities as recently as February. Despite earlier Oman-mediated proposals for zero stockpiling in March, recent strikes degraded but did not eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, reinforcing trader consensus at 93% "No" for any pre-April 30 concession. Only a sudden diplomatic reversal could shift odds, though historical patterns suggest low likelihood before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$670,016 Vol.
$670,016 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$670,016 Vol.
$670,016 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Marathon US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 without agreement, primarily over Tehran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment—a core US demand Iran deems a sovereign right and non-negotiable. President Trump warned of imminent military action, including a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade, escalating tensions amid IAEA reports confirming Iran's denial of access to four declared enrichment facilities as recently as February. Despite earlier Oman-mediated proposals for zero stockpiling in March, recent strikes degraded but did not eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, reinforcing trader consensus at 93% "No" for any pre-April 30 concession. Only a sudden diplomatic reversal could shift odds, though historical patterns suggest low likelihood before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volume
$670,016End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Marathon US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 without agreement, primarily over Tehran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment—a core US demand Iran deems a sovereign right and non-negotiable. President Trump warned of imminent military action, including a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade, escalating tensions amid IAEA reports confirming Iran's denial of access to four declared enrichment facilities as recently as February. Despite earlier Oman-mediated proposals for zero stockpiling in March, recent strikes degraded but did not eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, reinforcing trader consensus at 93% "No" for any pre-April 30 concession. Only a sudden diplomatic reversal could shift odds, though historical patterns suggest low likelihood before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$670,016End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Marathon US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 without agreement, primarily over Tehran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment—a core US demand Iran deems a sovereign right and non-negotiable. President Trump warned of imminent military action, including a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade, escalating tensions amid IAEA reports confirming Iran's denial of access to four declared enrichment facilities as recently as February. Despite earlier Oman-mediated proposals for zero stockpiling in March, recent strikes degraded but did not eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, reinforcing trader consensus at 93% "No" for any pre-April 30 concession. Only a sudden diplomatic reversal could shift odds, though historical patterns suggest low likelihood before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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