Recent collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where Washington demanded a firm pledge against pursuing nuclear weapons and ending uranium enrichment while Tehran disputed terms and insisted on its sovereign rights, has solidified trader consensus at 67% for "No." IAEA reports from late February highlight uncertainty over Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—following 2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities like Natanz and limited agency access. Despite earlier indirect Oman-mediated discussions in February suggesting potential curbs, stalled diplomacy amid ceasefire tensions and Iran's ongoing program advances underscore significant barriers to any pre-December 31 agreement, though surprise breakthroughs remain possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$26,269 Vol.
$26,269 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$26,269 Vol.
$26,269 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where Washington demanded a firm pledge against pursuing nuclear weapons and ending uranium enrichment while Tehran disputed terms and insisted on its sovereign rights, has solidified trader consensus at 67% for "No." IAEA reports from late February highlight uncertainty over Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—following 2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities like Natanz and limited agency access. Despite earlier indirect Oman-mediated discussions in February suggesting potential curbs, stalled diplomacy amid ceasefire tensions and Iran's ongoing program advances underscore significant barriers to any pre-December 31 agreement, though surprise breakthroughs remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$26,269End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where Washington demanded a firm pledge against pursuing nuclear weapons and ending uranium enrichment while Tehran disputed terms and insisted on its sovereign rights, has solidified trader consensus at 67% for "No." IAEA reports from late February highlight uncertainty over Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—following 2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities like Natanz and limited agency access. Despite earlier indirect Oman-mediated discussions in February suggesting potential curbs, stalled diplomacy amid ceasefire tensions and Iran's ongoing program advances underscore significant barriers to any pre-December 31 agreement, though surprise breakthroughs remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,269End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where Washington demanded a firm pledge against pursuing nuclear weapons and ending uranium enrichment while Tehran disputed terms and insisted on its sovereign rights, has solidified trader consensus at 67% for "No." IAEA reports from late February highlight uncertainty over Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—following 2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities like Natanz and limited agency access. Despite earlier indirect Oman-mediated discussions in February suggesting potential curbs, stalled diplomacy amid ceasefire tensions and Iran's ongoing program advances underscore significant barriers to any pre-December 31 agreement, though surprise breakthroughs remain possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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