Recent US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 without agreement, primarily over Tehran's refusal to hand over its roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile—a core US red line reiterated by President Trump and Vice President Vance. Despite White House reports on April 8 of Iran's initial signals of willingness to transfer the material amid a fragile ceasefire, Iranian officials insisted on retaining enrichment rights, stalling diplomacy. With no handover mechanism in place and military options like special operations floated earlier in March but not executed, traders reflect skin-in-the-game consensus at 82.5% against US obtaining the uranium by May 31, amid tight timelines and unresolved nuclear tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
$2,251,405 Vol.
$2,251,405 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$2,251,405 Vol.
$2,251,405 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 without agreement, primarily over Tehran's refusal to hand over its roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile—a core US red line reiterated by President Trump and Vice President Vance. Despite White House reports on April 8 of Iran's initial signals of willingness to transfer the material amid a fragile ceasefire, Iranian officials insisted on retaining enrichment rights, stalling diplomacy. With no handover mechanism in place and military options like special operations floated earlier in March but not executed, traders reflect skin-in-the-game consensus at 82.5% against US obtaining the uranium by May 31, amid tight timelines and unresolved nuclear tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$2,251,405End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 without agreement, primarily over Tehran's refusal to hand over its roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile—a core US red line reiterated by President Trump and Vice President Vance. Despite White House reports on April 8 of Iran's initial signals of willingness to transfer the material amid a fragile ceasefire, Iranian officials insisted on retaining enrichment rights, stalling diplomacy. With no handover mechanism in place and military options like special operations floated earlier in March but not executed, traders reflect skin-in-the-game consensus at 82.5% against US obtaining the uranium by May 31, amid tight timelines and unresolved nuclear tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,251,405End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12 without agreement, primarily over Tehran's refusal to hand over its roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile—a core US red line reiterated by President Trump and Vice President Vance. Despite White House reports on April 8 of Iran's initial signals of willingness to transfer the material amid a fragile ceasefire, Iranian officials insisted on retaining enrichment rights, stalling diplomacy. With no handover mechanism in place and military options like special operations floated earlier in March but not executed, traders reflect skin-in-the-game consensus at 82.5% against US obtaining the uranium by May 31, amid tight timelines and unresolved nuclear tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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