Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure through 2026, reflecting its successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and January 2026 amid economic collapse and escalation in the 2026 Iran war. Iranian security forces quelled the unrest through mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and pro-regime demonstrations, as seen in hundreds of organized rallies by late March. Recent Israeli and U.S. intelligence assessments, including WSJ reporting on March 13, indicate Tehran's leadership remains cohesive despite military setbacks and aerial campaigns, with no conditions ripe for popular uprising. Absent fresh catalysts like leadership vacuums or renewed mass mobilization, historical resilience bolsters expectations of continuity until 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,629,063 Vol.
$14,629,063 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$14,629,063 Vol.
$14,629,063 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure through 2026, reflecting its successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and January 2026 amid economic collapse and escalation in the 2026 Iran war. Iranian security forces quelled the unrest through mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and pro-regime demonstrations, as seen in hundreds of organized rallies by late March. Recent Israeli and U.S. intelligence assessments, including WSJ reporting on March 13, indicate Tehran's leadership remains cohesive despite military setbacks and aerial campaigns, with no conditions ripe for popular uprising. Absent fresh catalysts like leadership vacuums or renewed mass mobilization, historical resilience bolsters expectations of continuity until 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$14,629,063End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure through 2026, reflecting its successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and January 2026 amid economic collapse and escalation in the 2026 Iran war. Iranian security forces quelled the unrest through mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and pro-regime demonstrations, as seen in hundreds of organized rallies by late March. Recent Israeli and U.S. intelligence assessments, including WSJ reporting on March 13, indicate Tehran's leadership remains cohesive despite military setbacks and aerial campaigns, with no conditions ripe for popular uprising. Absent fresh catalysts like leadership vacuums or renewed mass mobilization, historical resilience bolsters expectations of continuity until 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$14,629,063End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure through 2026, reflecting its successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and January 2026 amid economic collapse and escalation in the 2026 Iran war. Iranian security forces quelled the unrest through mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and pro-regime demonstrations, as seen in hundreds of organized rallies by late March. Recent Israeli and U.S. intelligence assessments, including WSJ reporting on March 13, indicate Tehran's leadership remains cohesive despite military setbacks and aerial campaigns, with no conditions ripe for popular uprising. Absent fresh catalysts like leadership vacuums or renewed mass mobilization, historical resilience bolsters expectations of continuity until 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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