President Trump's recent statements excluding Lebanon from the US-Iran ceasefire—described as a "separate skirmish"—have solidified trader consensus against an endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire there by April 30, with "No" shares reflecting 73.5% implied probability. Following his April 8 announcement of a two-week halt in strikes on Iran, Israel intensified airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing over 250 in a single day, prompting Trump to urge Netanyahu to scale back but reaffirm support for Israel's position. Ongoing US-backed Israeli operations, coupled with stalled Pakistan talks where Iran demanded Lebanon's inclusion, underscore Trump's prioritization of Israel's security over de-escalation in Lebanon, absent any diplomatic push for truce amid fragile regional dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?
$41,638 Vol.
$41,638 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$41,638 Vol.
$41,638 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.President Trump's recent statements excluding Lebanon from the US-Iran ceasefire—described as a "separate skirmish"—have solidified trader consensus against an endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire there by April 30, with "No" shares reflecting 73.5% implied probability. Following his April 8 announcement of a two-week halt in strikes on Iran, Israel intensified airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing over 250 in a single day, prompting Trump to urge Netanyahu to scale back but reaffirm support for Israel's position. Ongoing US-backed Israeli operations, coupled with stalled Pakistan talks where Iran demanded Lebanon's inclusion, underscore Trump's prioritization of Israel's security over de-escalation in Lebanon, absent any diplomatic push for truce amid fragile regional dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$41,638End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.President Trump's recent statements excluding Lebanon from the US-Iran ceasefire—described as a "separate skirmish"—have solidified trader consensus against an endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire there by April 30, with "No" shares reflecting 73.5% implied probability. Following his April 8 announcement of a two-week halt in strikes on Iran, Israel intensified airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing over 250 in a single day, prompting Trump to urge Netanyahu to scale back but reaffirm support for Israel's position. Ongoing US-backed Israeli operations, coupled with stalled Pakistan talks where Iran demanded Lebanon's inclusion, underscore Trump's prioritization of Israel's security over de-escalation in Lebanon, absent any diplomatic push for truce amid fragile regional dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.
The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.
Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.
Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.
Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
Volume
$41,638End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's recent statements excluding Lebanon from the US-Iran ceasefire—described as a "separate skirmish"—have solidified trader consensus against an endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire there by April 30, with "No" shares reflecting 73.5% implied probability. Following his April 8 announcement of a two-week halt in strikes on Iran, Israel intensified airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing over 250 in a single day, prompting Trump to urge Netanyahu to scale back but reaffirm support for Israel's position. Ongoing US-backed Israeli operations, coupled with stalled Pakistan talks where Iran demanded Lebanon's inclusion, underscore Trump's prioritization of Israel's security over de-escalation in Lebanon, absent any diplomatic push for truce amid fragile regional dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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