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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?

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Geopolitics·Close

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?

Apr 12

Apr 30

Apr 12

Apr 30

8-11 75%

4-7 18.3%

12-15 3.5%

<4 1.6%

Polymarket

$91,742 Vol.

8-11 75%

4-7 18.3%

12-15 3.5%

<4 1.6%

Polymarket

$91,742 Vol.

<4

$55,001 Vol.

2%

4-7

$6,973 Vol.

20%

8-11

$6,714 Vol.

77%

12-15

$7,512 Vol.

3%

16-19

$4,309 Vol.

1%

20+

$11,233 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus heavily favors 8-11 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 at 72% implied probability, driven by ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic and Kpler showing daily volumes stuck at 7-12 vessels amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iran has maintained tight control since late February, requiring vessel approvals and routing through its northern corridor near Larak Island, even after a US-Iran ceasefire around April 8 failed to normalize traffic from pre-crisis averages exceeding 130 ships daily. April 11 saw limited tanker exits and two US Navy destroyers transit ahead of mine-clearing, but commercial caution persists due to lingering security risks, elevated insurance premiums, and over 150 vessels anchored nearby, positioning lower ranges like 4-7 at 20% as viable amid de-escalation uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$91,742
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus heavily favors 8-11 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 at 72% implied probability, driven by ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic and Kpler showing daily volumes stuck at 7-12 vessels amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iran has maintained tight control since late February, requiring vessel approvals and routing through its northern corridor near Larak Island, even after a US-Iran ceasefire around April 8 failed to normalize traffic from pre-crisis averages exceeding 130 ships daily. April 11 saw limited tanker exits and two US Navy destroyers transit ahead of mine-clearing, but commercial caution persists due to lingering security risks, elevated insurance premiums, and over 150 vessels anchored nearby, positioning lower ranges like 4-7 at 20% as viable amid de-escalation uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$91,742
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Related

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Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

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US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

25%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "8-11" at 77%, followed by "4-7" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?" has generated $91.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?" is "8-11" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4-7" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.