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Politics·Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Market icon
Politics·Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya 10%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 7.5%

Donald Trump 7%

Pope Leo XIV 3.6%

Polymarket

$13,310,491 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya 10%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 7.5%

Donald Trump 7%

Pope Leo XIV 3.6%

Polymarket

$13,310,491 Vol.

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Yulia Navalnaya

$100,139 Vol.

10%

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$417,169 Vol.

8%

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Donald Trump

$2,469,286 Vol.

7%

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Pope Leo XIV

$589,035 Vol.

4%

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Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$484,378 Vol.

3%

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UNRWA

$1,778,112 Vol.

3%

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International Court of Justice

$632,635 Vol.

3%

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Greta Thunberg

$1,030,912 Vol.

2%

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Xi Jinping

$861,612 Vol.

2%

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Narendra Modi

$370,001 Vol.

2%

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Elon Musk

$550,971 Vol.

1%

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Ahmed al-Sharaa

$638,404 Vol.

1%

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Julian Assange

$348,399 Vol.

1%

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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$472,318 Vol.

1%

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António Guterres

$162,125 Vol.

1%

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Mohammed bin Salman

$614,453 Vol.

1%

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Charlie Kirk

$669,203 Vol.

1%

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Khaled Mashal

$244,771 Vol.

1%

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Benjamin Netanyahu

$352,627 Vol.

1%

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Vladimir Putin

$524,075 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus positions Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, propelled by her unyielding campaign against Russian authoritarianism in Alexei Navalny's absence, including recent honors like the CEU Open Society Prize. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows at 7.5% following his formal nomination last month by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, emphasizing Ukraine's defense of democracy amid ongoing invasion. Donald Trump holds 6.5% on momentum from his January Davos "Board of Peace" charter signing and U.S. congressional endorsements touting Middle East diplomacy. With top contenders tightly clustered below 10%, the market underscores volatile dynamics hinging on committee narratives—human rights legacies, wartime resolve, and high-stakes dealmaking—with the October 10 announcement looming as the key catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$13,310,491
End Date
Oct 10, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus positions Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, propelled by her unyielding campaign against Russian authoritarianism in Alexei Navalny's absence, including recent honors like the CEU Open Society Prize. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows at 7.5% following his formal nomination last month by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, emphasizing Ukraine's defense of democracy amid ongoing invasion. Donald Trump holds 6.5% on momentum from his January Davos "Board of Peace" charter signing and U.S. congressional endorsements touting Middle East diplomacy. With top contenders tightly clustered below 10%, the market underscores volatile dynamics hinging on committee narratives—human rights legacies, wartime resolve, and high-stakes dealmaking—with the October 10 announcement looming as the key catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$13,310,491
End Date
Oct 10, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 10%, followed by "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" has generated $13.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.