Iran Ceasefire predictions & odds

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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

96%

December 31

$39M Vol.

$2M today

$784K Liq.

2,021

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

78%

June 30

$22M Vol.

$1M today

$506K Liq.

450

Ends in 3 months

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

48%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$1M today

$319K Liq.

91

Ends in about 2 months

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

1%

April 10

$10M Vol.

$1M today

$273K Liq.

1

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?

22%

April 21

$3M Vol.

$685K today

$104K Liq.

101

Ends in 7 days

Israel military action against Iran by...?

Israel military action against Iran by...?

23%

April 21

$1M Vol.

$519K today

$55.3K Liq.

38

Ends in 7 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

81%

May 31

$337K Vol.

$329K today

$137K Liq.

12

Ends in 16 days

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

56%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$307K today

$127K Liq.

255

Ends in 3 months

US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?

US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?

64%

April 21

$589K Vol.

$199K today

$83.9K Liq.

10

Ends in 7 days

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

88%

April 30

$168K Vol.

$153K today

$55.7K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

49%

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

$408K Vol.

$148K today

$114K Liq.

14

Ends in 16 days

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

96%

April 30

$279K Vol.

$135K today

$39.6K Liq.

38

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

48%

December 31

$616K Vol.

$134K today

$82.8K Liq.

7

Ends in 9 months

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

29%

April 21

$428K Vol.

$127K today

$45.4K Liq.

24

Ends in 7 days

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

69%

Pakistan

$80.4K Vol.

$80.4K today

$112K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

18%

$2M Vol.

$77.6K today

$124K Liq.

35

Ends in about 2 months

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

8%

$159K Vol.

$73.2K today

$23.0K Liq.

 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

38%

$333K Vol.

$64.4K today

$56.3K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

28%

$1M Vol.

$62.3K today

$22.0K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

22%

$723K Vol.

$55.9K today

$31.2K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 25 active markets for Iran Ceasefire that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $89.1M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 96% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

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