Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) combined license (COL) for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the absence of any such approvals through mid-April despite regulatory momentum. The NRC's March 4 issuance of a construction permit to TerraPower's Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor marked the first commercial non-light-water reactor permit in nearly a decade, signaling progress amid advanced reactor hype, but fell short of the market's COL threshold, which authorizes both construction and operation. Finalization of the long-awaited Part 53 risk-informed licensing framework on March 25 aims to accelerate deployments, yet historical timelines—often spanning years—and ongoing pre-application reviews for firms like Oklo and NuScale underscore persistent barriers, with key catalysts like TerraPower's full COL docket or TVA's small modular reactor application eyed for late-year potential shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,176 Vol.
$22,176 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$22,176 Vol.
$22,176 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) combined license (COL) for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the absence of any such approvals through mid-April despite regulatory momentum. The NRC's March 4 issuance of a construction permit to TerraPower's Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor marked the first commercial non-light-water reactor permit in nearly a decade, signaling progress amid advanced reactor hype, but fell short of the market's COL threshold, which authorizes both construction and operation. Finalization of the long-awaited Part 53 risk-informed licensing framework on March 25 aims to accelerate deployments, yet historical timelines—often spanning years—and ongoing pre-application reviews for firms like Oklo and NuScale underscore persistent barriers, with key catalysts like TerraPower's full COL docket or TVA's small modular reactor application eyed for late-year potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,176End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) combined license (COL) for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the absence of any such approvals through mid-April despite regulatory momentum. The NRC's March 4 issuance of a construction permit to TerraPower's Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor marked the first commercial non-light-water reactor permit in nearly a decade, signaling progress amid advanced reactor hype, but fell short of the market's COL threshold, which authorizes both construction and operation. Finalization of the long-awaited Part 53 risk-informed licensing framework on March 25 aims to accelerate deployments, yet historical timelines—often spanning years—and ongoing pre-application reviews for firms like Oklo and NuScale underscore persistent barriers, with key catalysts like TerraPower's full COL docket or TVA's small modular reactor application eyed for late-year potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,176End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) combined license (COL) for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the absence of any such approvals through mid-April despite regulatory momentum. The NRC's March 4 issuance of a construction permit to TerraPower's Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor marked the first commercial non-light-water reactor permit in nearly a decade, signaling progress amid advanced reactor hype, but fell short of the market's COL threshold, which authorizes both construction and operation. Finalization of the long-awaited Part 53 risk-informed licensing framework on March 25 aims to accelerate deployments, yet historical timelines—often spanning years—and ongoing pre-application reviews for firms like Oklo and NuScale underscore persistent barriers, with key catalysts like TerraPower's full COL docket or TVA's small modular reactor application eyed for late-year potential shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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