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Politics·Culture

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

Market icon
Politics·Culture

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

$61,275 Vol.

Apr 13, 2026
Polymarket

$61,275 Vol.

Polymarket

April 13

$1,603 Vol.

91%

April 14

$337 Vol.

67%

April 15

$3,643 Vol.

71%

April 16

$335 Vol.

81%

April 17

$4,349 Vol.

76%

April 18

$84 Vol.

71%

April 19

$31 Vol.

60%

April 20

$666 Vol.

70%

April 21

$5,589 Vol.

65%

April 22

$80 Vol.

68%

April 23

$4,796 Vol.

64%

April 24

$4,266 Vol.

72%

April 25

$4,172 Vol.

66%

April 26

$2,033 Vol.

67%

April 27

$5,777 Vol.

66%

April 28

$21 Vol.

68%

April 29

$3,397 Vol.

69%

April 30

$232 Vol.

62%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors Yes across daily markets from April 13-30 (70-90% implied probabilities), driven by President Trump's consistent pattern of personal attacks on Truth Social amid Iran war backlash, NATO strains, and papal criticism of his policies. April 11 resolved Yes after posts mocking Governor Abigail Spanberger as disloyal, foreign heads of state as incompetent, and Iranian leaders. Recent catalysts include labeling MAGA critics like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly "losers" and "stupid," insulting Pope Leo XIV, and deriding Greenland's prime minister as insignificant. Absent scheduled speeches or press conferences, traders anticipate continued posting amid controversies, though a quiet day remains possible.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,275
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors Yes across daily markets from April 13-30 (70-90% implied probabilities), driven by President Trump's consistent pattern of personal attacks on Truth Social amid Iran war backlash, NATO strains, and papal criticism of his policies. April 11 resolved Yes after posts mocking Governor Abigail Spanberger as disloyal, foreign heads of state as incompetent, and Iranian leaders. Recent catalysts include labeling MAGA critics like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly "losers" and "stupid," insulting Pope Leo XIV, and deriding Greenland's prime minister as insignificant. Absent scheduled speeches or press conferences, traders anticipate continued posting amid controversies, though a quiet day remains possible.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,275
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 11" at 100%, followed by "April 12" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?" has generated $61.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?" is "April 11" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 12" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.