The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments conducted by the National Nuclear Security Administration. Recent trader sentiment reflects heightened debate following President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling potential resumption amid allegations of low-yield Chinese and Russian testing, reinforced by a March 2026 Senate hearing where a top official did not rule out underground tests. However, congressional opposition to funding, international norms under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and risks of arms race escalation keep probabilities low. Upcoming DOE budget votes and executive actions could shift dynamics before any resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$637,125 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
1%
September 30, 2026
9%
December 31, 2026
14%
$637,125 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$22,261 Vol.
1%
September 30, 2026
$1,793 Vol.
9%
December 31, 2026
$2,853 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments conducted by the National Nuclear Security Administration. Recent trader sentiment reflects heightened debate following President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling potential resumption amid allegations of low-yield Chinese and Russian testing, reinforced by a March 2026 Senate hearing where a top official did not rule out underground tests. However, congressional opposition to funding, international norms under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and risks of arms race escalation keep probabilities low. Upcoming DOE budget votes and executive actions could shift dynamics before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$637,125End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments conducted by the National Nuclear Security Administration. Recent trader sentiment reflects heightened debate following President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling potential resumption amid allegations of low-yield Chinese and Russian testing, reinforced by a March 2026 Senate hearing where a top official did not rule out underground tests. However, congressional opposition to funding, international norms under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and risks of arms race escalation keep probabilities low. Upcoming DOE budget votes and executive actions could shift dynamics before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$637,125End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments conducted by the National Nuclear Security Administration. Recent trader sentiment reflects heightened debate following President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling potential resumption amid allegations of low-yield Chinese and Russian testing, reinforced by a March 2026 Senate hearing where a top official did not rule out underground tests. However, congressional opposition to funding, international norms under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and risks of arms race escalation keep probabilities low. Upcoming DOE budget votes and executive actions could shift dynamics before any resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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