Polymarket's 78.5% implied probability on "No" captures trader consensus skepticism that the U.S. federal budget deficit for December 2026, per Monthly Treasury Statement, will undercut September 2025's $198 billion figure—the precise resolution threshold. The Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline forecasts a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 deficit, marginally above FY2025's $1.8 trillion, as revenue boosts from doubled tariff collections (nearing $200 billion annually) and income tax surges are offset by extended tax cuts, escalating net interest payments exceeding $1 trillion yearly, and limited discretionary spending restraint. Cumulative FY2026 borrowing through March totaled $1.2 trillion, 11% below prior-year pace amid robust growth, yet backloaded outlays pose upside risks. Traders eye upcoming Monthly Treasury Statements and potential reconciliation reforms as pivotal catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket's 78.5% implied probability on "No" captures trader consensus skepticism that the U.S. federal budget deficit for December 2026, per Monthly Treasury Statement, will undercut September 2025's $198 billion figure—the precise resolution threshold. The Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline forecasts a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 deficit, marginally above FY2025's $1.8 trillion, as revenue boosts from doubled tariff collections (nearing $200 billion annually) and income tax surges are offset by extended tax cuts, escalating net interest payments exceeding $1 trillion yearly, and limited discretionary spending restraint. Cumulative FY2026 borrowing through March totaled $1.2 trillion, 11% below prior-year pace amid robust growth, yet backloaded outlays pose upside risks. Traders eye upcoming Monthly Treasury Statements and potential reconciliation reforms as pivotal catalysts.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$403End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket's 78.5% implied probability on "No" captures trader consensus skepticism that the U.S. federal budget deficit for December 2026, per Monthly Treasury Statement, will undercut September 2025's $198 billion figure—the precise resolution threshold. The Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline forecasts a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 deficit, marginally above FY2025's $1.8 trillion, as revenue boosts from doubled tariff collections (nearing $200 billion annually) and income tax surges are offset by extended tax cuts, escalating net interest payments exceeding $1 trillion yearly, and limited discretionary spending restraint. Cumulative FY2026 borrowing through March totaled $1.2 trillion, 11% below prior-year pace amid robust growth, yet backloaded outlays pose upside risks. Traders eye upcoming Monthly Treasury Statements and potential reconciliation reforms as pivotal catalysts.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$403End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket's 78.5% implied probability on "No" captures trader consensus skepticism that the U.S. federal budget deficit for December 2026, per Monthly Treasury Statement, will undercut September 2025's $198 billion figure—the precise resolution threshold. The Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline forecasts a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 deficit, marginally above FY2025's $1.8 trillion, as revenue boosts from doubled tariff collections (nearing $200 billion annually) and income tax surges are offset by extended tax cuts, escalating net interest payments exceeding $1 trillion yearly, and limited discretionary spending restraint. Cumulative FY2026 borrowing through March totaled $1.2 trillion, 11% below prior-year pace amid robust growth, yet backloaded outlays pose upside risks. Traders eye upcoming Monthly Treasury Statements and potential reconciliation reforms as pivotal catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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