Trader consensus favors 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting a moderated pace after a strong January surge in ICE interior removals, which increased fivefold year-over-year amid quadrupled arrests and detention capacity expansion to over 60,000 beds. Recent developments, including a February-March slowdown in street arrests following high-profile incidents like the Minneapolis killings, have tempered expectations, with Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) releases showing inconsistent data and public backlash prompting rhetorical shifts away from "mass deportations." Logistical hurdles—court backlogs, sanctuary jurisdictions, prioritization of criminals, and hiring lags despite $170 billion funding—project below 500,000 annually, though upcoming DHS leadership changes and third-country agreements could accelerate if capacity constraints ease.