Trader consensus favors "No" at 77% implied probability, driven by the absence of U.S. military offensives intended to establish control over any Latin American land territory, per market criteria. The January 3 special forces operation in Venezuela—codenamed Absolute Resolve—that captured President Nicolás Maduro and exfiltrated him did not qualify, as it involved no territorial occupation, sparking debate but leaving the market unresolved. Recent rhetoric from the Trump administration, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's threats of unilateral action against narco-terrorists and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel's April 12 warnings of full mobilization against potential invasion, heightens tensions. Yet, emphasis on drone strikes, joint exercises like Operation Southern Seas 2026, and the Shield of the Americas summit signals preference for targeted diplomacy over full-scale invasions, aligning with historical U.S. intervention patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$205,784 Vol.
$205,784 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$205,784 Vol.
$205,784 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus favors "No" at 77% implied probability, driven by the absence of U.S. military offensives intended to establish control over any Latin American land territory, per market criteria. The January 3 special forces operation in Venezuela—codenamed Absolute Resolve—that captured President Nicolás Maduro and exfiltrated him did not qualify, as it involved no territorial occupation, sparking debate but leaving the market unresolved. Recent rhetoric from the Trump administration, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's threats of unilateral action against narco-terrorists and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel's April 12 warnings of full mobilization against potential invasion, heightens tensions. Yet, emphasis on drone strikes, joint exercises like Operation Southern Seas 2026, and the Shield of the Americas summit signals preference for targeted diplomacy over full-scale invasions, aligning with historical U.S. intervention patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$205,784End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus favors "No" at 77% implied probability, driven by the absence of U.S. military offensives intended to establish control over any Latin American land territory, per market criteria. The January 3 special forces operation in Venezuela—codenamed Absolute Resolve—that captured President Nicolás Maduro and exfiltrated him did not qualify, as it involved no territorial occupation, sparking debate but leaving the market unresolved. Recent rhetoric from the Trump administration, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's threats of unilateral action against narco-terrorists and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel's April 12 warnings of full mobilization against potential invasion, heightens tensions. Yet, emphasis on drone strikes, joint exercises like Operation Southern Seas 2026, and the Shield of the Americas summit signals preference for targeted diplomacy over full-scale invasions, aligning with historical U.S. intervention patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$205,784End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 77% implied probability, driven by the absence of U.S. military offensives intended to establish control over any Latin American land territory, per market criteria. The January 3 special forces operation in Venezuela—codenamed Absolute Resolve—that captured President Nicolás Maduro and exfiltrated him did not qualify, as it involved no territorial occupation, sparking debate but leaving the market unresolved. Recent rhetoric from the Trump administration, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's threats of unilateral action against narco-terrorists and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel's April 12 warnings of full mobilization against potential invasion, heightens tensions. Yet, emphasis on drone strikes, joint exercises like Operation Southern Seas 2026, and the Shield of the Americas summit signals preference for targeted diplomacy over full-scale invasions, aligning with historical U.S. intervention patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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