Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Alberta joining the United States, reflecting minimal public support for secession—polls show 71% of residents favoring remaining in Canada—and firm opposition from Premier Danielle Smith, who champions a "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada." Recent separatist momentum, including a citizen initiative petition claiming sufficient signatures by late March 2026 to trigger an independence referendum, has failed to sway odds amid constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act requiring federal negotiations and clear majority approval, plus U.S. statehood demands of two-thirds congressional consent. A provincial referendum on October 19 targets other sovereignty measures, not separation. Only a seismic shift like an unexpected independence vote victory or explicit bilateral diplomatic backing could alter this trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Alberta joining the United States, reflecting minimal public support for secession—polls show 71% of residents favoring remaining in Canada—and firm opposition from Premier Danielle Smith, who champions a "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada." Recent separatist momentum, including a citizen initiative petition claiming sufficient signatures by late March 2026 to trigger an independence referendum, has failed to sway odds amid constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act requiring federal negotiations and clear majority approval, plus U.S. statehood demands of two-thirds congressional consent. A provincial referendum on October 19 targets other sovereignty measures, not separation. Only a seismic shift like an unexpected independence vote victory or explicit bilateral diplomatic backing could alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,052End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Alberta joining the United States, reflecting minimal public support for secession—polls show 71% of residents favoring remaining in Canada—and firm opposition from Premier Danielle Smith, who champions a "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada." Recent separatist momentum, including a citizen initiative petition claiming sufficient signatures by late March 2026 to trigger an independence referendum, has failed to sway odds amid constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act requiring federal negotiations and clear majority approval, plus U.S. statehood demands of two-thirds congressional consent. A provincial referendum on October 19 targets other sovereignty measures, not separation. Only a seismic shift like an unexpected independence vote victory or explicit bilateral diplomatic backing could alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$2,052End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Alberta joining the United States, reflecting minimal public support for secession—polls show 71% of residents favoring remaining in Canada—and firm opposition from Premier Danielle Smith, who champions a "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada." Recent separatist momentum, including a citizen initiative petition claiming sufficient signatures by late March 2026 to trigger an independence referendum, has failed to sway odds amid constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act requiring federal negotiations and clear majority approval, plus U.S. statehood demands of two-thirds congressional consent. A provincial referendum on October 19 targets other sovereignty measures, not separation. Only a seismic shift like an unexpected independence vote victory or explicit bilateral diplomatic backing could alter this trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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