President Trump's Truth Social post last week threatening severe action against Iran prompted dozens of Democrats to file impeachment articles and call for his removal via impeachment or the 25th Amendment, yet traders price "No" at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting Republican majorities in both the House and Senate that block conviction. Recent viral health rumors over Easter weekend were swiftly debunked by the White House, with no evidence of issues. Absent official resignation signals, confirmed incapacity, or midterm losses shifting congressional control before January 2027, the wisdom of crowds sees structural barriers to early exit, consistent with historical failed impeachments lacking bipartisan support. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as the primary risk factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$6,925,298 Vol.
$6,925,298 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$6,925,298 Vol.
$6,925,298 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's Truth Social post last week threatening severe action against Iran prompted dozens of Democrats to file impeachment articles and call for his removal via impeachment or the 25th Amendment, yet traders price "No" at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting Republican majorities in both the House and Senate that block conviction. Recent viral health rumors over Easter weekend were swiftly debunked by the White House, with no evidence of issues. Absent official resignation signals, confirmed incapacity, or midterm losses shifting congressional control before January 2027, the wisdom of crowds sees structural barriers to early exit, consistent with historical failed impeachments lacking bipartisan support. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as the primary risk factor.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$6,925,298End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's Truth Social post last week threatening severe action against Iran prompted dozens of Democrats to file impeachment articles and call for his removal via impeachment or the 25th Amendment, yet traders price "No" at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting Republican majorities in both the House and Senate that block conviction. Recent viral health rumors over Easter weekend were swiftly debunked by the White House, with no evidence of issues. Absent official resignation signals, confirmed incapacity, or midterm losses shifting congressional control before January 2027, the wisdom of crowds sees structural barriers to early exit, consistent with historical failed impeachments lacking bipartisan support. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as the primary risk factor.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,925,298End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's Truth Social post last week threatening severe action against Iran prompted dozens of Democrats to file impeachment articles and call for his removal via impeachment or the 25th Amendment, yet traders price "No" at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting Republican majorities in both the House and Senate that block conviction. Recent viral health rumors over Easter weekend were swiftly debunked by the White House, with no evidence of issues. Absent official resignation signals, confirmed incapacity, or midterm losses shifting congressional control before January 2027, the wisdom of crowds sees structural barriers to early exit, consistent with historical failed impeachments lacking bipartisan support. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as the primary risk factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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