Trader consensus favors no change in UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 49.5%, driven by Keir Starmer's firm public insistence in early 2026 interviews that he will remain in office through 2027, despite Labour's persistent low polling and internal dissent. Recent February pressures for his resignation were rebuffed, stabilizing his position absent a formal leadership challenge. Angela Rayner leads successors at 18.5% as deputy leader, boosted by her March speeches implicitly rebuking government policy on asylum and economic delivery, signaling ambitions amid reports of party unrest. Wes Streeting (4.5%) and Ed Miliband (4%) follow as rising cabinet figures, while Nigel Farage (2.9%) reflects Reform UK's opposition gains. Any shift hinges on spring budget outcomes or no-confidence triggers before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Next PM in 2026 49%
Angela Rayner 19%
Wes Streeting 5%
Ed Miliband 4.0%
$4,520,908 Vol.
$4,520,908 Vol.
No Next PM in 2026
49%
Angela Rayner
19%
Wes Streeting
5%
Ed Miliband
4%
Nigel Farage
3%
Rupert Lowe
3%
Andy Burnham
2%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Al Carns
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
Kemi Badenoch
1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
No Next PM in 2026 49%
Angela Rayner 19%
Wes Streeting 5%
Ed Miliband 4.0%
$4,520,908 Vol.
$4,520,908 Vol.
No Next PM in 2026
49%
Angela Rayner
19%
Wes Streeting
5%
Ed Miliband
4%
Nigel Farage
3%
Rupert Lowe
3%
Andy Burnham
2%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Al Carns
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
Kemi Badenoch
1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors no change in UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 49.5%, driven by Keir Starmer's firm public insistence in early 2026 interviews that he will remain in office through 2027, despite Labour's persistent low polling and internal dissent. Recent February pressures for his resignation were rebuffed, stabilizing his position absent a formal leadership challenge. Angela Rayner leads successors at 18.5% as deputy leader, boosted by her March speeches implicitly rebuking government policy on asylum and economic delivery, signaling ambitions amid reports of party unrest. Wes Streeting (4.5%) and Ed Miliband (4%) follow as rising cabinet figures, while Nigel Farage (2.9%) reflects Reform UK's opposition gains. Any shift hinges on spring budget outcomes or no-confidence triggers before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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