Market icon
Politics·Venezuela

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Market icon
Politics·Venezuela

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$1,047,859 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,047,859 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$505,831 Vol.

25%

December 31

$120,773 Vol.

55%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel remains firmly in power as First Secretary of the Communist Party and head of state amid escalating U.S. diplomatic pressure, with Trump administration officials demanding his removal as a precondition for substantive bilateral talks, as reported in March 2026 negotiations. In recent NBC interviews on April 9-12, Díaz-Canel rejected resignation outright, declaring "stepping down is not part of our vocabulary" while warning against potential U.S. military action and emphasizing national resistance. Cuba's deepening economic and energy crises—marked by fuel shortages, blackouts, and incoming aid—intensify speculation, but no internal party challenges or succession signals have emerged. Traders watch for National Assembly sessions or U.S. sanctions escalation that could tip the balance before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,047,859
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel remains firmly in power as First Secretary of the Communist Party and head of state amid escalating U.S. diplomatic pressure, with Trump administration officials demanding his removal as a precondition for substantive bilateral talks, as reported in March 2026 negotiations. In recent NBC interviews on April 9-12, Díaz-Canel rejected resignation outright, declaring "stepping down is not part of our vocabulary" while warning against potential U.S. military action and emphasizing national resistance. Cuba's deepening economic and energy crises—marked by fuel shortages, blackouts, and incoming aid—intensify speculation, but no internal party challenges or succession signals have emerged. Traders watch for National Assembly sessions or U.S. sanctions escalation that could tip the balance before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,047,859
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 55%, followed by "June 30" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" is "December 31" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.