Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% due to Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869), which deems unilateral state secession unconstitutional absent congressional consent, alongside zero pending bills or resolutions in any state legislature for a vote by June 30, 2026. No introductions have occurred in the past 30 days, with fringe efforts like California's non-binding 2028 plebiscite initiative bypassing legislatures entirely and Texas's "NewMexit" study focusing on New Mexico counties joining Texas rather than U.S. exit. Historical base rates show no such legislative votes since the Civil War, rendering the outcome politically untenable. Late-breaking crises like widespread unrest or federal overreach could theoretically prompt action, though sessions in most states have adjourned until fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAny US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
$23,355 Vol.
$23,355 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$23,355 Vol.
$23,355 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% due to Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869), which deems unilateral state secession unconstitutional absent congressional consent, alongside zero pending bills or resolutions in any state legislature for a vote by June 30, 2026. No introductions have occurred in the past 30 days, with fringe efforts like California's non-binding 2028 plebiscite initiative bypassing legislatures entirely and Texas's "NewMexit" study focusing on New Mexico counties joining Texas rather than U.S. exit. Historical base rates show no such legislative votes since the Civil War, rendering the outcome politically untenable. Late-breaking crises like widespread unrest or federal overreach could theoretically prompt action, though sessions in most states have adjourned until fall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Volume
$23,355End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% due to Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869), which deems unilateral state secession unconstitutional absent congressional consent, alongside zero pending bills or resolutions in any state legislature for a vote by June 30, 2026. No introductions have occurred in the past 30 days, with fringe efforts like California's non-binding 2028 plebiscite initiative bypassing legislatures entirely and Texas's "NewMexit" study focusing on New Mexico counties joining Texas rather than U.S. exit. Historical base rates show no such legislative votes since the Civil War, rendering the outcome politically untenable. Late-breaking crises like widespread unrest or federal overreach could theoretically prompt action, though sessions in most states have adjourned until fall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$23,355End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% due to Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869), which deems unilateral state secession unconstitutional absent congressional consent, alongside zero pending bills or resolutions in any state legislature for a vote by June 30, 2026. No introductions have occurred in the past 30 days, with fringe efforts like California's non-binding 2028 plebiscite initiative bypassing legislatures entirely and Texas's "NewMexit" study focusing on New Mexico counties joining Texas rather than U.S. exit. Historical base rates show no such legislative votes since the Civil War, rendering the outcome politically untenable. Late-breaking crises like widespread unrest or federal overreach could theoretically prompt action, though sessions in most states have adjourned until fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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