Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward President Trump's approval rating declining this week, with "Down" at 59% implied probability, driven by fresh polling averages slipping to the low 40s—RealClearPolitics at 40.9%, Fox News at 41% approve/59% disapprove, and Nate Silver's aggregate showing net -16.9 amid the ongoing Iran war. Surging gas prices above $4 per gallon, linked to the conflict, have eroded economic approval to 31-43% in CNN polls, despite stronger-than-expected March jobs data. Public skepticism of U.S. military action in Iran (58% opposed per Fox) and doubts over a clear strategy outweigh earlier honeymoon gains, with potential escalation or diplomatic updates looming as midterm risks intensify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
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Apr 18, 2026
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This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 17, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward President Trump's approval rating declining this week, with "Down" at 59% implied probability, driven by fresh polling averages slipping to the low 40s—RealClearPolitics at 40.9%, Fox News at 41% approve/59% disapprove, and Nate Silver's aggregate showing net -16.9 amid the ongoing Iran war. Surging gas prices above $4 per gallon, linked to the conflict, have eroded economic approval to 31-43% in CNN polls, despite stronger-than-expected March jobs data. Public skepticism of U.S. military action in Iran (58% opposed per Fox) and doubts over a clear strategy outweigh earlier honeymoon gains, with potential escalation or diplomatic updates looming as midterm risks intensify.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 17, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 10:06 AM ET
Volume
$1,282End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 10:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 17, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward President Trump's approval rating declining this week, with "Down" at 59% implied probability, driven by fresh polling averages slipping to the low 40s—RealClearPolitics at 40.9%, Fox News at 41% approve/59% disapprove, and Nate Silver's aggregate showing net -16.9 amid the ongoing Iran war. Surging gas prices above $4 per gallon, linked to the conflict, have eroded economic approval to 31-43% in CNN polls, despite stronger-than-expected March jobs data. Public skepticism of U.S. military action in Iran (58% opposed per Fox) and doubts over a clear strategy outweigh earlier honeymoon gains, with potential escalation or diplomatic updates looming as midterm risks intensify.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 17, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$1,282End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 10:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward President Trump's approval rating declining this week, with "Down" at 59% implied probability, driven by fresh polling averages slipping to the low 40s—RealClearPolitics at 40.9%, Fox News at 41% approve/59% disapprove, and Nate Silver's aggregate showing net -16.9 amid the ongoing Iran war. Surging gas prices above $4 per gallon, linked to the conflict, have eroded economic approval to 31-43% in CNN polls, despite stronger-than-expected March jobs data. Public skepticism of U.S. military action in Iran (58% opposed per Fox) and doubts over a clear strategy outweigh earlier honeymoon gains, with potential escalation or diplomatic updates looming as midterm risks intensify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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