China predictions & odds

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

23%

$8M Vol.

$549K today

$218K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

3%

$5M Vol.

$385K today

$240K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

9%

$20M Vol.

$290K today

$844K Liq.

71

Ends in 9 months

Will Trump visit China by...?

Will Trump visit China by...?

80%

June 30

$24M Vol.

$288K today

$411K Liq.

447

Ends in 16 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

48%

$647K Vol.

$50.3K today

$71.8K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

DeepSeek V4 released by...?

DeepSeek V4 released by...?

85%

May 15

$1M Vol.

$44.8K Liq.

Ends in 1 day

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

4%

$1M Vol.

$73.1K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

14%

$2M Vol.

$105K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Best Chinese AI Company end of April?

Best Chinese AI Company end of April?

77%

Alibaba

$44.4K Vol.

$33.8K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

82%

$37.2K Vol.

$19.4K Liq.

4

Ends in about 2 months

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

53%

$351K Vol.

$16.4K Liq.

37

Ends in 3 months

Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?

Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?

45%

<130mm

$27.4K Vol.

$12.7K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

23%

$240K Vol.

$45.9K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Who will acquire TikTok?

Who will acquire TikTok?

9%

Microsoft

$1M Vol.

$37.6K Liq.

41

Ends in 9 months

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

17%

Dong Jun

$120K Vol.

$143K Liq.

14

Ends in 9 months

US x China Military clash before 2027?

US x China Military clash before 2027?

11%

$66.9K Vol.

$29.6K Liq.

8

Ends in 9 months

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

7%

$275K Vol.

$189K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

3%

$73.5K Vol.

$18.8K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

68%

$78.9K Vol.

$23.8K Liq.

17

Ends in 9 months

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

68%

4.0–5.0%

$239K Vol.

$45.8K Liq.

1

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like China.

Polymarket currently hosts 38 active markets for China that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $63.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Will Trump visit China by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Will Trump visit China by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 80% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on China predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.