Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.7% for a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting the absence of verifiable escalatory signals amid ongoing cross-strait gray-zone tactics like PLA military exercises and coast guard incursions, which simulate but have not transitioned to actual blockades. Recent diplomacy, including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping stressing peaceful unification as an inevitability, has eased immediate tensions, while Taiwan announced defensive drills on April 12 to counter potential energy disruptions. High confidence stems from China's economic vulnerabilities—reliance on imported energy and global semiconductor supply chains—coupled with U.S. deterrence, though sudden PLA mobilization, Taiwan independence moves, or U.S. arms sales could shift odds rapidly before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
$1,075,781 Vol.
$1,075,781 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$1,075,781 Vol.
$1,075,781 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.7% for a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting the absence of verifiable escalatory signals amid ongoing cross-strait gray-zone tactics like PLA military exercises and coast guard incursions, which simulate but have not transitioned to actual blockades. Recent diplomacy, including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping stressing peaceful unification as an inevitability, has eased immediate tensions, while Taiwan announced defensive drills on April 12 to counter potential energy disruptions. High confidence stems from China's economic vulnerabilities—reliance on imported energy and global semiconductor supply chains—coupled with U.S. deterrence, though sudden PLA mobilization, Taiwan independence moves, or U.S. arms sales could shift odds rapidly before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2025, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,075,781End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2025, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.7% for a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting the absence of verifiable escalatory signals amid ongoing cross-strait gray-zone tactics like PLA military exercises and coast guard incursions, which simulate but have not transitioned to actual blockades. Recent diplomacy, including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping stressing peaceful unification as an inevitability, has eased immediate tensions, while Taiwan announced defensive drills on April 12 to counter potential energy disruptions. High confidence stems from China's economic vulnerabilities—reliance on imported energy and global semiconductor supply chains—coupled with U.S. deterrence, though sudden PLA mobilization, Taiwan independence moves, or U.S. arms sales could shift odds rapidly before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,075,781End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2025, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.7% for a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting the absence of verifiable escalatory signals amid ongoing cross-strait gray-zone tactics like PLA military exercises and coast guard incursions, which simulate but have not transitioned to actual blockades. Recent diplomacy, including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping stressing peaceful unification as an inevitability, has eased immediate tensions, while Taiwan announced defensive drills on April 12 to counter potential energy disruptions. High confidence stems from China's economic vulnerabilities—reliance on imported energy and global semiconductor supply chains—coupled with U.S. deterrence, though sudden PLA mobilization, Taiwan independence moves, or U.S. arms sales could shift odds rapidly before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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