Following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize broad tariffs—including the 10% "Liberation Day" levy and higher rates on Canada, Mexico, and China—the U.S. Court of International Trade on March 4 ordered the Trump administration to begin processing over $130 billion in refunds to importers. The Federal Circuit denied stay requests, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports its refund system 40-80% complete, yet thousands of lawsuits strain proceedings amid administrative delays and settlement talks. Trader consensus at 52.5% Yes captures this tight balance, with appeals in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States potentially upholding or blocking mandated payouts by June 30; appellate rulings, new executive actions, or initial disbursements could decisively shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$350,495 Vol.
$350,495 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$350,495 Vol.
$350,495 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.Following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize broad tariffs—including the 10% "Liberation Day" levy and higher rates on Canada, Mexico, and China—the U.S. Court of International Trade on March 4 ordered the Trump administration to begin processing over $130 billion in refunds to importers. The Federal Circuit denied stay requests, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports its refund system 40-80% complete, yet thousands of lawsuits strain proceedings amid administrative delays and settlement talks. Trader consensus at 52.5% Yes captures this tight balance, with appeals in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States potentially upholding or blocking mandated payouts by June 30; appellate rulings, new executive actions, or initial disbursements could decisively shift odds.
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ET
Volume
$350,495End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.Following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize broad tariffs—including the 10% "Liberation Day" levy and higher rates on Canada, Mexico, and China—the U.S. Court of International Trade on March 4 ordered the Trump administration to begin processing over $130 billion in refunds to importers. The Federal Circuit denied stay requests, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports its refund system 40-80% complete, yet thousands of lawsuits strain proceedings amid administrative delays and settlement talks. Trader consensus at 52.5% Yes captures this tight balance, with appeals in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States potentially upholding or blocking mandated payouts by June 30; appellate rulings, new executive actions, or initial disbursements could decisively shift odds.
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$350,495End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize broad tariffs—including the 10% "Liberation Day" levy and higher rates on Canada, Mexico, and China—the U.S. Court of International Trade on March 4 ordered the Trump administration to begin processing over $130 billion in refunds to importers. The Federal Circuit denied stay requests, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports its refund system 40-80% complete, yet thousands of lawsuits strain proceedings amid administrative delays and settlement talks. Trader consensus at 52.5% Yes captures this tight balance, with appeals in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States potentially upholding or blocking mandated payouts by June 30; appellate rulings, new executive actions, or initial disbursements could decisively shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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