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Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Market icon

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

83% chance
Polymarket

$35,990 Vol.

83% chance
Polymarket

$35,990 Vol.

If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a Putin visit to China by May 31 at 83% yes, driven by Chinese President Xi Jinping's February 4 invitation for an official trip in the first half of 2026, which Russian President Vladimir Putin promptly accepted during their videoconference. Recent reports from late March and early April, including South China Morning Post analyses, indicate Beijing is coordinating Putin's May visit shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump's planned May 14-15 trip—the first such consecutive bilateral visits outside multilateral summits. Deepening Russia-China strategic coordination on global issues, evidenced by frequent high-level exchanges like the upcoming Russian Foreign Minister's April 14-15 Beijing trip, bolsters expectations, though final dates remain unannounced amid ongoing diplomatic preparations.

If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$35,990
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a Putin visit to China by May 31 at 83% yes, driven by Chinese President Xi Jinping's February 4 invitation for an official trip in the first half of 2026, which Russian President Vladimir Putin promptly accepted during their videoconference. Recent reports from late March and early April, including South China Morning Post analyses, indicate Beijing is coordinating Putin's May visit shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump's planned May 14-15 trip—the first such consecutive bilateral visits outside multilateral summits. Deepening Russia-China strategic coordination on global issues, evidenced by frequent high-level exchanges like the upcoming Russian Foreign Minister's April 14-15 Beijing trip, bolsters expectations, though final dates remain unannounced amid ongoing diplomatic preparations.

If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$35,990
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
If Vladimir Putin visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Putin physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Putin enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Vladimir Putin, the Federal Government of Russia, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Putin visit China by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 83% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 83¢, the market collectively assigns a 83% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Putin visit China by May 31?" has generated $36K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Putin visit China by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Putin visit China by May 31?" is 83% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 83% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Putin visit China by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.